The Springs Resort on October 14th, 2025 with the San Juan River at major flood stage of 12.75 feet. Photo Credit to Angela Wirth. (select title of post to see picture)
Saturday – 1 November 2025 – 8:00am
Included in this newsletter: Flood report, Winter Weather Wonder report, CoCoRaHS Training report, Snowtography report! And Big Thank You Waves to Individual Donors & Our Sponsors; Calendar of events, CoCoRaHS and Contest Updates…
Personal Donations
Huge waves of thanks to: Jean Eilek, Patricia Conger, Sarah & Chuck Riehm, Sandra & Darin Dillon, Doug’s View Photography, who made a generous donations in October! Thank you!!!
What your generous donation goes towards…
Your donations help us take care of our website manager, Fluid Elements, the Pagosa Weather website, commercial weather subscriptions, and other business expenses. Most importantly your donations ensure that we will be able to provide this FREE service for everyone for years to come!
To make a donation, click on this link: How to Donate. You can donate by PayPal, Visa or MasterCard through Square, or send a Check to: Pagosa Weather, 135-F Country Center Dr. #142, Pagosa Springs CO 81147. Thank you so much for your generosity!
Shawn and I have been truly touched by the support our followers have shown for us! THANK YOU!!!
Sponsors
We LOVE our Sponsors! They just amaze us with their support!
The Springs Resort is our featured sponsor and our Storm Sponsor and they have been with us from the beginning. They recently, literally, rode out a 100 year flood and came out whole on the other side. It is time to celebrate!
Hot Springs Fest 2025 is just around the corner! From November 7–9, Pagosa Springs will come alive with a weekend of soaking, wellness, and music. Your festival ticket includes:
- Live music across three days
- Wellness activities + unique guided soaks
- Unlimited soaking at all three downtown venues — The Springs Resort, Healing Waters, and The Overlook
Don’t wait — this is Pagosa’s signature fall festival and tickets are going fast.
- Get all the details → www.pagosahotsprings.com
2025 Sponsors! (Click on the sponsor’s name to follow link to their website.)
Blizzard Level Sponsor: Ski & Bow Rack
Snowman Level Sponsors
Terry’s Colorado Home Supply & Ace Hardware
Snowball Level Sponsors
Peggy Andrews, Independent Real Estate Broker
Dr. Leo Milner, D.C., Chiropractic Services
Pagosa Wilderness + Pagosa Rafting Outfitters + A1Taxi
Storm Sponsor: The Springs Resort
Community Outreach!
100 Year Flood!!!
The area rivers and creeks were impacted by two tropical storms from October 10th till October 16th. It was the highest the San Juan River has been since June of 1927!
We received rains from Tropical Storm Priscilla from October 9th, starting in the evening, till the early morning hours on the 12th. Valley reports varied from 1.58 to 4.02! Upper San Juan Snotel recorded 6.4″ of rain during that time. The San Juan River at the Pagosa Springs sensor in town reached 12.66 feet (major flood stage) and 8,270cfs on Saturday, October 11th at 6pm. The Piedra river at the Arboles sensor reached 5.86 and 4,680cfs on Sunday the 12th at 2:15am.
We received rains from Tropical Storm Raymond on October 13th and 14th. Valley reports ranged from .81 to 3.15″! Upper San Juan Snotel recorded 3.8″ of rain during that time. The San Juan River at the Pagosa Springs sensor in town reached 12.82 feet (major flood stage) and 8,560cfs on Wednesday, October 15th at 5:15am. The Piedra river at the Arboles sensor reached 7.26 feet and 7,080cfs on Tuesday the 14th at 4:30pm.
Shawn contacted National Weather Service, the Sheriff’s department and the Pagosa Sun mid-morning on the 11th when we extrapolated the rising San Juan River waters. Sheriff Mike LeRoux invited us to the MAC meetings at the Emergency Operations Center the next day to present our forecast for Tropical Storm Raymond. It was amazing to witness the disaster response first hand. We were very impressed with everyone’s professionalism and concern for those impacted by the flood.
We were doubtful of the initial forecasted precipitation amounts because they were unprecedented in this area. However, the higher Euro model numbers did verify Tropical Storm Priscilla. We knew then that the numbers with Raymond were possible. Though they would be less, those rains would fall on soils that were already saturated.
Historic Crests of San Juan River in Pagosa Springs
1. 17.80 ft on 10-05-1911 Tropical Storm
2. 13.50 ft on 06-29-1927 Early Tropical Storm?
3. 12.82 ft ***on 10-15-2025 *** Tropical Storm Raymond
4. 12.66 ft *** on 10-11-2025 *** Tropical Storm Priscilla
5. 10.22 ft on 06-09-2019 Spring runoff
6. 9.55 ft on 05-17-2023 Spring runoff
7. 9.02 ft on 09-06-1970 Tropical Storm
There is a new #3 and #4!!! Note: this data is from official usgs.gov records.
If you would like to read more information and see charts and graphs for this time period, see Shawn’s article on the storm summary. Storm Summary Post.
See CoCoRaHS report below for more flood details.
Shawn briefing tropical storm weather at the Archuleta County MAC meeting on October 12th, 2025.
Pagosa Weather “Winter Weather Wonder”!
Huge thanks to everyone who came out for our “Winter Weather Wonder” on October 17th. About 120 weather geeks showed up to hear about our snow prediction and how I develop that forecast. Dustin English, as always, gave a fascinating and entertaining talk on avalanches and back county safety.
Huge thanks to our sponsors Wilderness Journeys, Pagosa Mountain Sports, and San Juan Sled Dogs who joined us. The dogs were a huge attraction! Also, special thanks to Upper San Juan Search and Rescue, and Cindi Galabota, CSU County Extension Agent for providing essential winter preparedness information.
I would like to extend a personal thanks to the Pagosa Weather Board, Jane, Deborah, Debbie, and Udgar for helping me plan and help with the event. Also thanks to friends Carrie, Dallas, Shari, Gus, Joe, Lisa, Bill, Jacquie, and Mike! Massive thanks to Bryan who was our audio visual hero. Otherwise we would have been doing shadow puppets. Thank you all!!!
We had a fun evening talking about everything winter and SNOW!
For those of you who were not able to make it that night, follow this link for a copy of my presentation. I’ll provide full explanation for each of these charts with the full outlook in mid-November.
Preliminary 25’/26′ Winter Outlook
Snowtography!
I joined the Snowtography team this year! They are conducting a study for Mountain studies institute in the Jackson mountain area.
“Snowtography is a low-cost monitoring technique that allows us to understand how different forest structures and canopy cover impact snow accumulation, retention and ablation. An existing network of monitoring sites, called SNOTEL, already exists across the western US, but these sites are placed in open meadows at high elevations and do not represent the complexity of forest structures we see across the landscape.
What sets snowtography apart is its simplicity and therefore ability to be implemented at multiple locations at a much lower cost than SNOTEL (about 50 times less expensive). Each snowtography site uses automated trail cameras that use time-lapse photography to observe snow stakes (a sort of measuring stick) on a transect (a line).
While SNOTEL is an irreplaceable resource for water resource managers, we hope to build a regional network of snowtography sites to not only understand our current water availability, but to also build an understanding of how forest structure, type, and location impact our water resources. The ultimate goal is to see if there is a possibility to increase water yields while reducing wildfire risk, but at a minimum, this effort will aid in improving our hydrologic modeling in these complex systems.”
I’ll be sending periodic reports this winter. Hoping for lots of snow to monitor!
Mountain Studies Institute.org
Pagosa Weather Calendar
- November 8th: Winter Emergency class, 10am, County Extension Building, Fairgrounds.
- July 4th, 2026: America’s 250th birthday/Colorado’s 150th birthday Celebration at Yamaguchi Park. Pagosa Weather will be passing out Pagosa Weather bike water bottles (filled with water).
If any teachers or organizations would like a Pagosa Weather class or presentation, send an email to Arleen at pagosaweather@gmail.com.
CoCoRaHS Newsletter Updates
We’d like to give a shout out to the THIRTY CoCoRaHS observers who sent reports during Tropical Storm Priscilla and Tropical Storm Raymond. These reports were being looked at by National Weather Service, County, State, and National emergency management. Our most northwestern report had the most precipitation in the nation (other than two reports on the Carolina coast and one on the Alabama coast) for that time period. It was fun to compare notes to other folks about measuring more than two inches in a 24 hour period.
Special thanks must be given to Debbie, our CoCoRaHS observer in San Juan River Village. Debbie had to evacuate her home twice. I was blown away by the fact that she still managed to send her CoCoRaHS reports!
We had about 10 observers show up for snow measurement training for CoCoRaHS observers on October 8th. We started with a pot luck meal. Then we had a great discussion on measuring snow.
Pagosa Weather is the Archuleta County “CoCoRaHS Coordinator” and “Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador”.
HELP! Do you or do you have a friend that lives in one of the six areas highlighted below?
Archuleta County is well represented but we still have BIG data gaps. We really need a volunteer in southern Hinsdale County, west Highway 160, Arboles, Pagosa Junction, Dulce, and Upper Blanco. Sign up by filling out this web page: https://www.cocorahs.org/application.aspx. Or send us a note and we can send you more detailed information.
Perhaps, our November Newsletter will show fewer red circles!
Weather Data Lovers, CoCoRaHS has released CoCoRaHS Data Explorer, or “DEx” for short. This tool provides countless new ways to visualize and analyze data. Note: it is highly recommended to use larger screens when viewing the DEx.
Click here to go to the DEx Station Search page for data access to any station in the database. (open to the public)
The red circles are areas we could use a CoCoRaHS observer. Let us know if you can give us 5 to 10 minutes every morning to measure precip and snow. CoCoRaHS provides all the training you need.
Note: We have a part time observer in the Upper Blanco. Ricky is only here for the summer. We really need a full time CoCoRaHS observer up that way to measure all those winter snows.
Pagosa Weather September SUMMARY & October Outlook
Shawn recently posted the October Summary and my November outlook. I can tell you October was incredible and historic. This fall has been great for the trees!
Contest Updates
Special Thanks to our sponsor businesses that have stepped forward to sponsor our weather contests. They are a lot of fun!
Upcoming Contests
| Contest | Issue Date | Sponsor |
| Wolf Creek Snow | Nov 20th | Ski &Bow Rack |
| 75 Degree | March 15th | Pagosa Mountain Sport |
Active Contest – First Inch of Snow Weather Contest!
Forecast the date and time of the first inch of snow that falls and sticks to the ground. The Pagosa Weather Team will determine and verify the 1st inch of snow. The verification snowboard is seven miles northwest of Pagosa. A winner will be declared when this snowboard has an inch of snow. Note: This contest is closed to new guesses.
The person with the closest guess wins a $50 gift certificate from Terry’s Ace Hardware!
Terry’s Ace is one of our Snowman Sponsors. It is a modern-day general store and a member of the largest retailer-owned hardware cooperative in the industry. When Ace talks about the “Most Helpful Hardware” store, Terry’s is a shining example.
We are so thankful to Grace and her entire team at Terry’s Ace Hardware for their support of Pagosa Weather!
Good luck to all!
11/1/2025 9:00 AM Rick Moore
11/1/2025 Noon Tina Edwards
11/2/2025 6:00 AM Bruce Ellis
11/2/2025 6pm Dena Laterza
11/3/2025 9pm Susan Zoerb
11/3/2025 3:00 PM Christian Cornish
11/3/2025 9:00 AM Joe Merola
11/3/2025 3:00 PM Stacey Fern
11/4/2025 3:00 PM Chellie Voss
11/5/2025 3am Bob Ashmore
11/5/2025 6:00 AM Jennie Leverett
11/5/2025 3:00 PM Brenda Hash
11/7/2025 6:00 AM Heather Miller
11/7/2025 6:00 AM Corrinne Johnson
11/8/2025 9pm Janet Pentis
11/8/2025 6:00 AM Steve Blechschmidt
11/10/2025 3am Bruce German
11/10/2025 3am Brady Turner
11/11/2025 3:00 PM Pamela Knoche
11/11/2025 11pm Ed H
11/12/2025 3am Angela Konvicka
11/13/2025 Midnight Katherine Yoklavich
11/13/2025 9pm Jenny Heckmann
11/14/2025 6:00 AM Michelle Kolkau
11/14/2025 9pm Denise Fisk
11/14/2025 6:00 AM Scott McKenzie
11/15/2025 9pm Kristie Bixler
11/15/2025 6:00 AM Renee Demianew
11/16/2025 9pm Mirick Cox
11/16/2025 9pm Susan Fern
11/17/2025 3am Darrell Smith
11/20/2025 9:00 AM Peggy Andrews
11/22/2025 MT Irene Beck
11/23/2025 MT Tiffany DeGregorio
11/23/2025 6:00 AM Patti Spindler
11/25/2025 9:00 AM Deborah HAYWARD
11/27/2025 3:00 PM Paul Coleman
11/27/2025 6:00 AM Joan Scott
11/28/2025 3am Martha Ball
11/28/2025 6:00 AM Sue Fischer
11/29/2025 MT Clayton Rizzi
11/30/2025 3:00pm Kate Porter
12/1/2025 9pm Meg Wempe
12/2/2025 Midnight Michelle Juneau
12/2/2025 Midnight Marianne Carroll
12/3/2025 6:00 AM Juanita Simmons
12/5/2025 6:00 AM Chris Olson
12/8/2025 6:00 AM Jana Hoyer
12/10/2025 9pm Nancy Carey
12/12/2025 9:00 AM Kenny Rogers
12/15/2025 Midnight Duwain Whitis
12/24/2025 6:00 PM Eric Fisk
12/25/2025 Midnight Barbara Pugh
12/28/2025 3am Janna Broderson
12/31/2025 9:00 AM Victoria Coleman
1/8/2026 6pm Lisa Seider
Active Contest – First 24″ of Snow Winter 2023/2024
Forecast the date and time we measure 24” of snow depth on the ground. The person with the closest guess will get a $100 gift certificate to Alley House! Note: This contest is closed to any new guesses.
The Pagosa Weather Team will determine and verify the 24 inches of snow. The verification area is located about 7 miles north of Pagosa in O’Neal Park just off of North Piedra, past the two cattle guards at 8,030 feet elevation. Let’s have fun and support our local businesses!
Huge “Thanks” to Joni, Martin, Landon, Alisa and the entire team at Alley House for their support and sponsoring this contest!
Good Luck to everyone!
Date Time Name – First Name Name – Last Name
11/5/2025 9:30 Briana Seelen
11/5/2025 10:30 Belen Rutan
11/11/2025 8:30 Bo Ciombor
11/11/2025 23:00 Lisa Smith
11/11/2025 11:00 Katie Lorenzen
11/11/2025 5:00 Heather Dawn (Therkildsen)
11/13/2025 23:30 Michele Gallegos
11/13/2025 3:30 Braden Smith
11/14/2025 11:00 Melanie Fortner
11/15/2025 Joshlyn Howard
11/16/2025 5:00 Christian Cornish
11/17/2025 3:30 Darrell Smith
11/18/2025 4:30 Kasey Rodriguez
11/19/2025 23:30 Nelly Kardakova
11/22/2025 10:30 Cait Ellis
11/22/2025 0:30 Reese Jamsay
11/24/2025 11:30 D Gooch
11/26/2025 0:00 Kathleen Kuboske
11/27/2025 6:00 donald farr
11/27/2025 7:30 Kevin Daniel
11/28/2025 19:00 Jennifer Brown
11/28/2025 7:00 Joan Scott
11/28/2025 0:30 Katherine Bors
11/28/2025 22:30 Shell Eisenbarth
11/28/2025 16:30 Rachel Berge
11/29/2025 9:30 Devin Edwards
11/30/2025 15:00 Alyssa Perk
11/30/2025 9:00 Brianna Webster
12/1/2025 6:00 Karen Kurio
12/2/2025 1:30 Claire Paul
12/2/2025 6:00 Sylvia McDaniel
12/3/2025 5:00 Steve Voorhis
12/4/2025 7:00 Lisa Gamber
12/4/2025 5:30 Sage Faulkner
12/5/2025 16:00 Martha Ball
12/6/2025 1:00 Alex Lewis
12/7/2025 7:30 Jay Christianson
12/7/2025 3:30 Jenny Heckmann
12/9/2025 16:00 Charles Randour
12/10/2025 7:30 Ashlee Bratton
12/10/2025 0:00 Tessa Treat
12/11/2025 7:00 Steve Blechschmidt
12/11/2025 11:00 Gina Leach
12/11/2025 18:30 Carley Saikowski
12/11/2025 8:00 Colleen Salo
12/12/2025 10:00 Eric Lewis
12/12/2025 6:30 Theresa Suchanek
12/13/2025 5:30 Andy Avery
12/14/2025 10:30 Shelley Shrader
12/14/2025 16:00 Ron Bogs
12/15/2025 7:00 Tania Sobchuk
12/15/2025 14:00 Judy Estes
12/16/2025 6:30 Caleb Beaird
12/17/2025 9:30 Rachel Suh
12/17/2025 21:00 Lori Capre
12/17/2025 23:00 Erica Hagopian
12/17/2025 9:00 Spencer Schor
12/17/2025 8:30 Ceci Hockman
12/18/2025 17:00 Jared Payne
12/18/2025 7:00 Dave Stimpson
12/18/2025 7:00 Mark Langford
12/18/2025 3:30 Brenda Smith
12/19/2025 7:00 Gerry Whitlow
12/19/2025 18:30 Aleisha Young
12/19/2025 6:00 Micah Stewart
12/19/2025 23:30 Stephanie Rizzi
12/19/2025 17:30 Dolores Rode
12/19/2025 4:30 Tiffany Kinne
12/20/2025 16:30 Brian Bors
12/21/2025 6:30 Rob Van Natter
12/21/2025 7:30 Win Bruce
12/22/2025 17:30 Carol Bowden
12/22/2025 5:30 Kelly Coleman
12/22/2025 5:00 Julie August
12/22/2025 6:30 Dennise Badell
12/22/2025 23:30 Lesley Britton
12/22/2025 14:30 Kortnii Mccard
12/23/2025 6:00 Donald Wallen
12/23/2025 8:00 Edie Brogan
12/23/2025 6:30 Carrie Medlin
12/24/2025 4:30 Kathleen Porter
12/24/2025 18:00 Lisa Seider
12/24/2025 9:00 Baxter Kavan
12/24/2025 0:30 Micki Wootton
12/25/2025 9:00 Leslie Hutchison
12/26/2025 8:30 Amber West
12/27/2025 4:00 Kris Bos
12/27/2025 7:00 Chris Edwards
12/27/2025 3:30 Stephanie Pham
12/27/2025 23:30 Chance Vercelli
12/27/2025 13:30 Rebecca Nelson
12/27/2025 20:30 Ted Falkowski
12/28/2025 9:00 Chris Colby
12/28/2025 16:30 Betsy Cotton
12/28/2025 20:00 Kierstan Renner
12/28/2025 13:00 Jules Graeve
12/28/2025 18:00 Mary Stokes
12/28/2026 8:00 Birgitta Kater
12/29/2025 7:00 Luke Skinner
12/29/2025 9:30 Logan Treat
12/30/2025 3:30 Nicole Smith
12/30/2025 18:00 Patti Kimmel
12/31/2025 6:00 Venita Durrer
1/1/2026 9:00 Tanille Bruce
1/1/2026 7:30 Victoria Coleman
1/2/2026 2:00 Diane Teachworth
1/2/2026 6:00 Meg Wempe
1/3/2026 18:00 Bobby Phillips
1/3/2026 7:00 Eric Burt
1/3/2026 5:00 Karen Faber
1/3/2026 11:30 Sarah Saraceno
1/3/2026 5:30 Phil Slusher
1/3/2026 5:00 Larinn Hilgemann
1/3/2026 10:00 Randy Green
1/4/2026 10:00 Randy Green
1/4/2026 6:00 Peggy Andrews
1/4/2026 16:30 Cindi Galabota
1/4/2026 4:30 Kimberly Puckett
1/5/2026 7:00 Jeanette Green
1/7/2026 7:30 Jeff Witten
1/7/2026 7:00 Vicki Jones
1/7/2026 9:30 Sherry Milligan
1/8/2026 7:00 Matt Martin
1/8/2026 14:30 Douglas Yeaton
1/10/2026 10:00 Dave Duquemin
1/10/2026 3:00 Teresa McGehee
1/10/2026 11:00 Cathy Abbott
1/10/2026 18:00 Deb Hayward
1/10/2026 3:30 Troy Rettig
1/10/2026 6:00 Duwain Whitis
1/11/2026 8:30 Michael Falick
1/11/2026 5:00 Larissa Terrell
1/11/2026 5:00 Lynn Robinson
1/11/2026 6:30 Anne Cook
1/13/2026 4:00 Pat Murphy
1/14/2026 6:30 Tina Edwards
1/14/2026 5:00 Julie Pederson
1/14/2026 22:00 Brad Kinser
1/14/2026 8:30 Mirick Cox
1/15/2026 23:00 Jode McKee
1/15/2026 2:00 Michelle Juneau
1/15/2026 16:30 Russ Swall
1/15/2026 12:00 Kristie Bixler
1/15/2026 6:30 Lauri Stumph
1/15/2026 12:00 Kristie Bixler
1/16/2026 8:00 Nancy Green
1/16/2026 21:30 Christine Brody
1/16/2026 16:30 Chuck Buscaglia
1/17/2026 7:00 Brady Turner
1/17/2026 2:00 Amanda Mastin
1/17/2026 7:30 Gail Young
1/18/2026 16:00 Pattye Holton
1/19/2026 14:00 Renee Cravens
1/19/2026 7:00 Lori Spencer
1/19/2026 8:00 Clayton Rizzi
1/20/2026 10:30 Paul Coleman
1/20/2026 7:00 Audrey Martin
1/20/2026 10:30 Kenny Rogers
1/21/2026 7:30 Angel Salter
1/21/2026 10:00 Andrew Studt
1/24/2026 9:30 Marianne Carroll
1/26/2026 7:30 Brad Hall
1/26/2026 16:30 Steven Rolig
1/27/2026 3:00 Musetta Wollenweber
1/27/2026 7:00 Kathleen McFadden
1/27/2026 6:00 Sheldon Burks
1/27/2026 12:00 Kris May
1/27/2026 8:30 Nacole Garlinghouse
1/28/2026 5:00 Ron Montoya
1/28/2026 15:00 Kate Treweeke
2/1/2026 Barbara Swindlehurst
2/2/2026 17:00 Brian Lawson
2/2/2026 14:00 Ed H
2/2/2026 9:00 Sarah Kinser
2/2/2026 2:00 Ellen Schmidt
2/3/2026 4:30 Linsey Holt
2/3/2026 3:30 Lesann Young
2/4/2026 9:00 Sarah Daulton
2/6/2026 3:00 Beth Kerrigan
2/6/2026 17:30 Abey Nelson
2/6/2026 16:30 Rogelyn Grigsby
2/7/2026 9:00 Lisa Vail
2/10/2026 9:30 Eric Bickel
2/13/2026 6:00 Maria De Leon
2/14/2026 8:00 Marie Omer
2/14/2026 22:00 Becky Davis
2/15/2026 16:30 Iijeffrey kushner
2/15/2026 9:00 Barbara Remien
2/15/2026 5:30 Janice Bell
2/16/2026 7:00 Susan Zoerb
2/17/2026 6:30 Coquette Collins
2/18/2026 15:30 Bryan Weitzel
2/19/2026 2:00 Kayla Cornish
2/19/2026 0:30 Bruce Wootton
2/22/2026 2:00 Marcy Haggerty
2/24/2026 6:30 Steve Hays
2/25/2026 4:30 Eileen Anderson
2/28/2026 9:30 Debbie Moore
3/1/2026 5:30 Marlys Nelson
3/2/2026 9:30 Karen Fulghum
3/3/2026 10:00 Mike Buckingham
3/13/2026 Lindsey Rios
3/16/2026 11:30 Katherine Yoklavich
