Pagosa Area Weather Models

Forecast models are derived by computers ingesting an unfathomable amount of data, and then doing extremely complex computations infinitely faster than humans, and then spitting out a future solution.  Forecast models can be high resolution for short periods or lower resolution for longer periods.
An integral part of the forecast process is to continually verify how forecast models are doing.
Is the model too slow? Too fast?  Too strong?  Too weak?  Too moist?  Too dry? 
All forecast models have their strengths and weaknesses.  We forecasters in the loop (FITL – pronounced fiddle) identify these things and then adjust the forecast accordingly.
Today’s forecast models are pretty good, but we forecasters are a necessary part of the forecast process.
Dart forecast meme

Tropical Tidbits

Good source for model data – free.

Weather Models

Our primary source for model data – subscription required.

Pivotal Weather

Good source for model data, but some requires a subscription.

Colorado Avalanche Information Center (CAIC)

Favorite source for high resolution WRF model data focused on specific Colorado mountain ranges.

College of DuPage

Good selection of model data but clunky and not too user friendly.

Weather Prediction Center

Grand Junction NWS Lightning Potential

Good “first look” for lightning potential especially during summer.

Grand Junction NWS Snowfall Probabilities

Includes snowfall map for western CO and eastern UT but we use it mainly for the table at the bottom of the page.

Colorado State University Precip and Snow

Focused on the Colorado region.

University of Utah GFS and Canadian Ensemble

7 day precip for Wolf Creek – One of our favorite products for snowfall.

Good source for model data. 

Pagosa Weather Disclaimer and Release of Liability

This website makes no guarantees about nor bears any responsibility or liability concerning the accuracy or timeliness of the weather information published on this website. All weather information published on this website is for educational and weather enthusiast purposes only. We do not issue Storm Watches, Warnings or Advisories as that ability falls with the National Weather Service, who is the only institution allowed to issue such warnings by law. We are not in any way linked nor affiliated with the National Weather Service, although we do share information and relay weather watches/ warnings, etc. Use of the information on page is at your own risk/discretion, and we are not responsible for any personal/property damages, injury or death associated with weather forecasts, reports or other information as well as communication exchanged in private messages and/or person.

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