Forecast models are derived by computers ingesting an unfathomable amount of data, and then doing extremely complex computations infinitely faster than humans, and then spitting out a future solution. Forecast models can be high resolution for short periods or lower resolution for longer periods.
An integral part of the forecast process is to continually verify how forecast models are doing.
Is the model too slow? Too fast? Too strong? Too weak? Too moist? Too dry?
All forecast models have their strengths and weaknesses. We forecasters in the loop (FITL – pronounced fiddle) identify these things and then adjust the forecast accordingly.
Today’s forecast models are pretty good, but we forecasters are a necessary part of the forecast process.
