Preliminary 25’/26′ Winter Outlook

Love waking up to a winter wonderland! – pic taken 11/4/2022

Looking forward to the mountains looking like this soon! (click on title of post to see image if not visible)

Saturday – 18 Oct 2025 – 12:15pm

Full Outlook will be out in November

Huge thanks to everyone who came out for our “Winter Weather Wonder” last night. About 120 weather geeks showed up to hear about our snow prediction and how I develop that forecast. Dustin English, as always, gave a fascinating and entertaining talk on avalanches and back county safety.

Huge thanks to our sponsors Wilderness Journeys, Pagosa Mountain Sports, and San Juan Sled Dogs who joined us. The dogs were a huge attraction! Also, huge thanks to Upper San Juan Search and Rescue, and Cindi Galabota, CSU County Extension Agent for providing essential winter preparedness information.

I would like to extend a personal thanks to the Pagosa Weather Board, Jane, Deborah, Debbie, and Udgar for helping me plan and help with the event. Also thanks to friends Carrie, Dallas, Shari, Gus, Joe, Lisa, Bill, Jacquie, and Mike! Special thanks to Bryan who was our audio visual hero. Otherwise we would have been doing shadow puppets. Thank you all!!!

As always, thanks to each of you for following us, your reports, pictures, videos, and supporting Pagosa Weather!

Winter Outlook Slide Show

For those of you who were not able to make it last night, here is a copy of my presentation. I’ll provide full explanation for each of these charts with the full outlook in mid-November.

17 Oct 25 Winter wx 1
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17 Oct 25 Winter wx 35

Again, I’ll provide full explanation for each of these charts with the full out look in mid-November.

-Arleen

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Arleen Pro

I grew up in Montana where my love of the mountains is rooted. I served in the Air Force, forecasting aviation weather, for 24 years. I had eight assignments and my favorites were Colorado, Alaska, Korea, and Germany. I deployed several times, including to Iraq and Afghanistan. After RV traveling for nine years, Shawn and I found paradise in Pagosa. Here we enjoy playing outside in the spectacular San Juan mountains!
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4 Responses

    1. Howard & Jean, thank you for your patience! It takes some time to write it up & I’m looking forward to some updated information.
      My winter forecast is for average snow. But something is really wonky in the atmosphere right now. The polar front jet has been bucking tradition, keeping a very southerly route, and has been very active. It will be very good for us if it keeps up this trend.

      Reply

      1. You and your team have been a gift to us here in Pagosa. I love receiving your emails and have trust and confidence in your weather reports. Yes, you are the first ever “Weatherman” that I have found to be trustworthy. Thank you!

        Reply

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