Storm summary and a detailed forecast…

Much of the county was treated to an incredible sky last night! – taken on 10/15/2025

Much of the county was treated to an incredible sky last night! – taken on 10/15/2025

Thursday – 16 Oct 2025 – 1:00pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Wednesday: High: 69, Low: 43, Peak Wind: 32mph

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6478 / 19582611 / 1956

Precipitation summary, river levels, lake levels, and drought conditions…

A band of showers and thunderstorms developed over western Archuleta County yesterday afternoon and got stronger is hit the eastern part of the county and Chama.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour rain reports from Thursday morning ranged from 0.05” to 1.29”. A strong band of showers and thunderstorms moved through the area circled in red. Note the 1.55” for Chama. Those two reports near Chromo near baffle me. It’s amazing that the band of strong showers skirted them!
CoCoRaHS 24-hour rain reports from Thursday morning ranged from 0.05” to 1.29”.
A strong band of showers and thunderstorms moved through the area circled in red. Note the 1.55” for Chama. Those two reports near Chromo near baffle me. It’s amazing that the band of strong showers skirted them!
CoCoRaHS rain totals for 10-16 Oct range from 2.64” to 7.15”.  For perspective, October average precip for Pagosa Springs is 2.27” and 4.39” for Wolf Creek Pass.
CoCoRaHS rain totals for 10-16 Oct range from 2.64” to 7.15”. 
For perspective, October average precip for Pagosa Springs is 2.27” and 4.39” for Wolf Creek Pass.
San Juan River height over the last 7 days.
San Juan River height over the last 7 days.
Piedra River height over the last 7 days.
Piedra River height over the last 7 days.
Navajo Reservoir has risen 9ft in the last few days. That’s a lot, but to put it in perspective, it’s just a 5% rise. Vallecito Reservoir, much smaller than Navajo, jumped from 22.7% to 54.1%. Area streams are still high but are coming down steadily so the lakes will continue to rise a bit over the next few days. That inflow on 14 Oct is incredible.
Navajo Reservoir has risen 9ft in the last few days. That’s a lot, but to put it in perspective, it’s just a 5% rise. Vallecito Reservoir, much smaller than Navajo, jumped from 22.7% to 54.1%.
Area streams are still high but are coming down steadily so the lakes will continue to rise a bit over the next few days.
That inflow on 14 Oct is incredible.
This week’s drought map dated 10/14/2025 shows “abnormally dry” for southwest Archuleta County and no drought for the northeast part of the county. Next week with more data, this map could show no drought for Archuleta County.
This week’s drought map dated 10/14/2025 shows “abnormally dry” for southwest Archuleta County and no drought for the northeast part of the county. Next week with more data, this map could show no drought for Archuleta County.

Current satellite and radar…

Water vapor satellite Thursday around noon – The trough moved through last night. Ridging and drier air will give us great weather over the next few days and then a weak trough will kick up a few scattered showers the middle of next week.
Water vapor satellite Thursday around noon – The trough moved through last night. Ridging and drier air will give us great weather over the next few days and then a weak trough will kick up a few scattered showers the middle of next week.

There is nothing on radar in our region around noon on Thursday.

Forecast highlights…

*** HARD FREEZE in the Pagosa Springs area Thursday and Friday nights with temps in the low to high 20s. ***

*** Thursday afternoon through Tuesday there will be lots of sun and dry weather. ***

*** Wednesday and next Thursday a weak system with a little bit of valley rain and little bit of mountain snow is possible. ***

Forecast details…

Rest of Thursday through Tuesday… Ridging will build over the region and give us lots of sun and dry weather. Temps will be 5 degrees below average to near average.

Wednesday and next Thursday… A weak trough will move through and kick up a few scattered showers. Precip amounts will be low. Mountains above 10,000ft could get 2-5″ of snow.

Temps…

Thursday and Friday highs will be in the mid-50s to low 60s and *** lows will be in the low to high 20s. ***

Saturday, Sunday and Monday highs will be near 60 to the high 60s and lows will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s.

Tuesday, Wednesday, and next Thursday highs will be in the mid-50s to low 60s. Tuesday night low will be in the mid-20s to low 30s. Wednesday and next Thursday lows will be near 30 to the high 30s.

Winds…

Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph.

Monday afternoon gusts will be 25-30mph.

Tuesday, Wednesday, and next Thursday afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph.

*** As always, stronger isolated gusts are likely near a shower or thunderstorm. ***

Euro precip to next Thursday evening shows 0.44” and up to 0.60’ in our mountains.  I think might be a bit too much.
Euro precip to next Thursday evening shows 0.44” and up to 0.60’ in our mountains.  I expect a little less.
Euro snow to next Thursday evening shows none near Pagosa and 2-5” in our mountains. The snow level will bounce between 10,000ft and 11,000ft.
Euro snow to next Thursday evening shows none near Pagosa and 2-5” in our mountains. The snow level will bounce between 10,000ft and 11,000ft.

The 8-14 day period… The models show a weak system around 27-28 Oct but are otherwise mostly dry.

On the top, Euro AI ensemble precip to 31 Oct at 6am shows 0.71” in the Pagosa area. On the bottom, GFS ensemble precip shows 0.62”. I do not expect much precip during this period.
On the top, Euro AI ensemble precip to 31 Oct at 6am shows 0.71” in the Pagosa area. On the bottom, GFS ensemble precip shows 0.62”. I do not expect much precip during this period.

The next post will be on Saturday.

Please come see us tomorrow at 5:30pm at Pagosa Lodge!

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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