Meteorologists look at tons of weather data every day.
The Pagosa Weather forecast process usually goes like this:
What happened in the previous 24 hours? The Past
What is happening now? The Present
What will happen next? The Future
To break that down further…
The Past
- Surface Weather Observations
- Precip Reports
- Upper Air Observations
- Satellite Data
- Radar
- Verification of Forecast Models
Current
We look at the same data but for right now. Are major features in the position and at the values expected? If not, why?
Is the weather doing what’s expected or are there surprises? Why?
Future
- Extrapolate Satellite and Radar Features Forward
- Forecast Models
- Short term: Specifics Like Temps, Winds, Clouds, and Precip
- Medium Term: A General Range for Those Things and Trends
- Long Range: General Trends for the Overall Pattern
- Verification of Forecast Models
This process is a continuous loop that occurs 24/7/365.
The weather never stops and neither does forecasting it! The three person Pagosa Weather Team can’t do it 24/7/365 so we also look at forecast discussions from NWS and Open Snow as a place to start.
After looking at much of the information listed above, we determine how the weather will interact with our complicated terrain, plus what we’ve seen similar weather patterns do in the past, and then come up with a forecast tailored to Pagosa Country.
Here are some of the sources we use to bring you the weather in the Pagosa Springs area.