Pagosa Weather OCTOBER SUMMARY & November Outlook

Two tropical systems, way above average precip, and flooding have erased drought conditions over much of Archuleta County

Two tropical systems dropped way above average precip and erased drought conditions over much of Archuleta County

Sunday – 2 Nov 2025 – 7am

October Summary…

The average high for Oct is 63 and the average low is 26. The record high of 85 occurred on 14 Oct 1940. The record low of -5 occurred on 21 Oct 1910. Oct precip averages 2.27″ and average snowfall is 4″. Wolf Creek Pass averages 4.39″ of precip and 26.7″ snow.

At Stevens Field the highest temp was 74 on 2 and 9 Oct and the lowest temp was 22 on 28 and 29 Oct. There were 2 days with winds at or over 30mph. The strongest wind was 43mph on 4 Oct.

How did we do?

October mean temperature anomalies across much of Archuleta County were 1-3 degrees above average.
October mean temperature anomalies across much of Archuleta County were 1-3 degrees above average.
October mean precip anomalies were 300-400% of average for most of Archuleta County.
October mean precip anomalies were 300-400% of average for most of Archuleta County.
CoCoRaHS precip totals ranged from 3.46″ to 8.11″. All 22 locations were above the average of 2.27″.
CoCoRaHS precip totals ranged from 3.46″ to 8.11″. All 22 locations were above the average of 2.27″.
Total precip so far for 2025 is 17.11″ – 93% of the average of 18.41″ for this point of the year
Total precip so far for 2025 is 17.11″ – 93% of the average of 18.41″ for this point of the year
It's a rough to start to the season. We got well above average precip, but it fell as rain from warm, subtropical air.
It’s a rough to start to the season. We got well above average precip, but it fell as rain from warm, subtropical air.

Drought and River Levels…

Two tropical systems, way above average precip, and flooding have erased drought conditions over much of Archuleta County The US drought map on the bottom shows that much of the US is experiencing drought conditions.
Two tropical systems dropped way above average precip and erased drought conditions over much of Archuleta County
The US drought map on the bottom shows that much of the US is experiencing drought conditions.
The San Juan River hit "major flood stage" twice when the remnants of Tropical Storm Priscilla and Tropical Storm Raymond dropped 3-7" of rain in the Pagosa area and 9-10" of rain on our mountains. Historically these are the 3rd and 4th highest peaks since 1911.
The San Juan River hit “major flood stage” twice when the remnants of Tropical Storm Priscilla and Tropical Storm Raymond dropped 3-7″ of rain in the Pagosa area and 9-10″ of rain on our mountains. Historically these are the 3rd and 4th highest river peaks since 1911.
1.17.80 fton 10-05-1911Tropical Storm
2.13.50 fton 06-29-1927Early Tropical Storm?
3.12.82fton 10-15-2025Tropical Storm Raymond
4.12.66 fton 10-11-2025Tropical Storm Priscilla
5.10.22 fton 06-09-2019Spring runoff
6.9.55 fton 05-17-2023Spring runoff
7.9.02 fton 09-06-1970Tropical Storm
These are the historic crests of the San Juan River in Pagosa Springs since 1911.

The Piedra River also experienced significant flooding.
The Piedra River also experienced significant flooding.
Navajo Reservoir has risen 13 feet since 9 Oct. For perspective, that's a 7% gain. The inflow of 15,110cfs on 14 Oct is incredible.
Navajo Reservoir has risen 13 feet since 9 Oct. For perspective, that’s a 7% gain.
The 15,110cfs inflow on 14 Oct is incredible.

November Outlook…

The average high for Nov is 49 and the average low is 16. The record high of 75 occurred on 2 Nov 1945. The record low of -18 occurred on 17 Nov 1907. Nov precip averages 1.62″ and average snowfall is 10″. Wolf Creek Pass averages 4.13″ of precip and 54.5″ of snow.

The CPC temp outlook for Nov on the left shows a 50-60% chance for above average temps. The precip outlook on the right shows a 40-50% chance for below average precip.
The CPC temp outlook for Nov on the left shows a 50-60% chance for above average temps.
The precip outlook on the right shows a 40-50% chance for below average precip.
Euro ensemble precip on the top expects 1.20″ for Nov and the GFS ensemble precip on the bottom expects 1.44″. Both models expect less than the average of 1.62″. Last month the Euro did better than the GFS but they were both way off.
Euro ensemble precip on the top expects 1.20″ for Nov and the GFS ensemble precip on the bottom expects 1.44″.
Both models expect less than the average of 1.62″. Last month the Euro did better than the GFS but they were both way off.

And what do we expect?

Arleen is the expert, and this is what she says…

484792696 9389929964431928 1311244370622568102 n

The current setup is looking very La Niña like with systems keeping to our north. The first half of the month will be dry with above average temperatures.

The Arctic Oscillation is still negative – systems are not reaching far south into hemisphere. On the bright side, the MJO will enter our area around the middle of the month and will make the weather pattern more active for us.

The second half of the month, a few systems will move through but it will be too little too late. We’ll end November with below average precipitation and snow. Temperatures will be near average the second half of the month.

A HUGE thanks for your precip reports and pictures! Reports help verify our forecasts and make us better forecasters.

Another HUGE thanks to our donors and sponsors! You help cover the cost of this web page and our weather subscriptions, necessary to provide you accurate weather reports!

  • Shawn

Pagosa Weather Blizzard Level Sponsor

Ski & bow rack logo with an archer
Pagosa Weather Snowman Level Sponsors
Pagosa Weather Snowball Level Sponsors

Pagosa Weather Storm Sponsor

The Springs Resort logo
Picture of Shawn Pro

Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
Categories

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Support Pagosa Weather

Contact Us

Pagosa Weather Disclaimer and Release of Liability

This website makes no guarantees about nor bears any responsibility or liability concerning the accuracy or timeliness of the weather information published on this website. All weather information published on this website is for educational and weather enthusiast purposes only. We do not issue Storm Watches, Warnings or Advisories as that ability falls with the National Weather Service, who is the only institution allowed to issue such warnings by law. We are not in any way linked nor affiliated with the National Weather Service, although we do share information and relay weather watches/ warnings, etc. Use of the information on page is at your own risk/discretion, and we are not responsible for any personal/property damages, injury or death associated with weather forecasts, reports or other information as well as communication exchanged in private messages and/or person.

Terms of Use                  Privacy Policy

© 2026 Pagosa Weather 

Website Design by : Brandon