Maybe some snow on the horizon…

Darrell and Zora are looking for homes at the Humane Society of Pagosa Springs. I really enjoy hanging out with both of these fun pups. I’d love to see them get homes!

Darrell and Zora are looking for homes at the Humane Society of Pagosa Springs. I really enjoy hanging out with both of these fun pups. I’d love to see them get homes!

Monday – 3 Nov 2025 – 1:00pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Saturday: High: 58, Low: 22, Peak Wind: 10mph

Sunday: High: 66, Low: 26, Peak Wind: 6mph

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5474 / 194520-6 / 1991

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Current satellite and radar…

Water vapor satellite Monday afternoon – The ridge, jagged blue line, has pushed to our east but is still forcing systems to our north. The weak low over UT will move northeast today and give us a few more clouds and gustier afternoon winds. The real action continues to be over Pacific NW.
Water vapor satellite Monday afternoon – The ridge, jagged blue line, has pushed to our east but is still forcing systems to our north. The weak low over UT will move northeast today and give us a few more clouds and gustier afternoon winds. The real action continues to be over Pacific NW.

There is nothing on radar in the Pagosa Springs area Monday afternoon.

Forecast highlights…

*** Lots of sun and mostly dry for the next 10 days. ***

*** Finally a pattern change and some snow on the horizon. ***

Forecast details…

Rest of Monday through next Monday… Ridging will give us lots of sun and dry weather. Temps will be around 10 degrees above average through Wednesday and then around 5 degrees above average for the rest of the week.

Temps…

Tuesday and Wednesday highs will be in the low to high 60s and lows will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s.

Thursday through next weekend highs will be in the mid-50s to mid-60s and lows will be in the low 20s to low 30s.

Winds…

Afternoon gusts will be around 15mph. Today and Thursday are the exceptions with gusts around 20mph.

NBM precip to 14 Nov at 11am shows 0.03” near Pagosa and up to 0.25” in our mountains.
NBM precip to 14 Nov at 11am shows 0.03” near Pagosa and up to 0.25” in our mountains.
NBM snow to 14 Nov at 11am shows 0.2” near Pagosa and 3-5” in our mountains.
NBM snow to 14 Nov at 11am shows 0.2” near Pagosa and 3-5” in our mountains.

The 8-14 day period… A persistent ridge over the desert Southwest will keep the storm track to our north through 11 or 12 Nov. Starting around 12 Nov the ridge will weaken and move to our east. The storm track will dip farther south, and a few low-pressure systems will move through the Four Corners region.

On the top, Euro ensemble precip to 18 Nov at 5am shows 0.58” in the Pagosa area. On the bottom, GFS ensemble precip shows 0.75”. The storm track to stay to our north (black arrows) for most of this period and then shift south towards the end.
On the top, Euro ensemble precip to 18 Nov at 5am shows 0.58” in the Pagosa area. On the bottom, GFS ensemble precip shows 0.75”. The storm track to stay to our north (black arrows) for most of this period and then shift south towards the end.
Euro ensemble 15-day snow – This model shows 7.6” of snow for Wolf Creek over the next 15-days. This isn’t impressive but it is a little more encouraging.
Euro ensemble 15-day snow – This model shows 7.6” of snow for Wolf Creek over the next 15-days. This isn’t impressive but it is a little more encouraging.

The next post will be on Wednesday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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