Another week of nice weather…

The “Beaver” supermoon – Photo taken by Chris O. near Chromo CO on 11/5/2025

Thursday – 6 Nov 2025 – 1:30pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Tuesday: High: 61, Low: 27, Peak Wind: 16mph

Wednesday: High: 64, Low: 24, Peak Wind: 7mph

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
55	70 / 1950	19	4 / 1943

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Current satellite and radar…

Water vapor satellite Thursday afternoon – The ridge off the west coast has been flattened by the low off the Pacific NW coast. A few mid and upper-level clouds are being pushed into our area by flow out of the west-southwest (yellow arrows). The ridge will strengthen/rebound along the west coast over the weekend.

There is nothing on radar in the Pagosa Springs area Thursday afternoon.

Forecast highlights…

*** Lots of sun and mostly dry through next Thursday. ***

*** A more active pattern will start next weekend. ***

Forecast details…

Rest of Thursday through next Thursday… Today a weak trough is skirting through northern Colorado. We’ll just see a few more clouds and slightly stronger afternoon winds.

For the rest of the period, ridging will give us lots of sun and dry weather. Temps will be around 5 degrees above average for the rest of the week.

Temps…

Today through next Thursday highs will be in the mid-50s to mid-60s and lows will be in the low 20s to low 30s. The cold spots will be in the teens.

Winds…

Today afternoon gusts will be around 20mph. For the rest of this period afternoon gusts will be 10-15mph.

*NBM precip to 13 Nov at 11pm shows nothing near Pagosa.*

*NBM snow to 13 Nov at 11pm shows none near Pagosa and 4-12” in the northern Colorado mountains.*

The 8-14 day period… A persistent ridge over the desert Southwest will keep the storm track to our north through 12 or 13 Nov.

Starting around 13 Nov the ridge will weaken and move to our east. The storm track will dip farther south, and a few low-pressure systems will move through the Four Corners region.

On the top, Euro ensemble precip to 21 Nov at 5am shows 0.58” in the Pagosa area. On the bottom, GFS ensemble precip shows 1.01”. The storm track to stay to our north through the 13th and then get more active. — *On the top, Euro ensemble precip to 21 Nov at 5am shows 0.58” in the Pagosa area. On the bottom, GFS ensemble precip shows 1.01”.*
*The storm track will stay to our north through the 13^th and then get more active.*

*Euro ensemble 15-day snow for Wolf Creek shows 12”. This isn’t impressive but it’s a start.*

The next post will be on Saturday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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