A nice week ahead…

Dramatic sky – pic taken 9/13/2025

Dramatic sky – pic taken 9/13/2025

Sunday – 14 Sep 2025 – 5:50pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Friday: High: 66, Low: 46, Minimum relative humidity: 52%, Peak Wind: 28mph

Saturday: High: 66, Low: 42, Minimum relative humidity: 32%, Peak Wind: 36mph

*** Sunday morning a few cold spots got down to 30 degrees. ***

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7492 / 19903724 / 1950

Precipitation summary… Most of the county has exceeded the September average precip!

CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports on Saturday morning ranged from 0.64” 1.37”.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports on Saturday morning ranged from 0.64” 1.37”.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports on Sunday morning ranged from 0.02” 0.32”.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports on Sunday morning ranged from 0.02” 0.32”.
4-day storm totals range from 1.58” to 2.51”.
4-day storm totals range from 1.58” to 2.51”.
Precip totals so far in Sep range from 1.85” to 3.61”. *** Much of the county has exceeded the September average of 2”. ***
Precip totals so far in September range from 1.85” to 3.61”.
*** Much of the county has exceeded the September average of 2.00”. ***

San Juan River levels…

San Juan River flow went from 24cfs on Wednesday morning to 1010cfs shortly after midnight Friday night.
San Juan River flow went from 24cfs on Wednesday morning to 1010cfs shortly after midnight Friday night.

Forecast discussion…

Visual satellite late Sunday afternoon – Ridging – jagged blue line – is pushing drier air into the region. Upper-level flow is out of the west across CO. There are lots of little cumulus over the mountains.
Visual satellite late Sunday afternoon – Ridging – jagged blue line – is pushing drier air into the region. Upper-level flow is out of the west across CO. There are lots of little cumulus over the mountains.

There is nothing on radar in our area Sunday afternoon.

Forecast highlights…

*** Sunday night the cold spots in the valley could dip below freezing. Protect your plants! ***

*** Today through Thursday there will be lots of blue sky and pleasant temps. ***

*** Tuesday afternoon there is a slight chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm, mostly over the mountains. ***

*** Friday, Saturday, and next Sunday hit and miss showers and thunderstorms are possible each afternoon. Precip amounts will be low. ***

Rest of Sunday through Thursday… A ridge will build over the region and give us nice weather with lots of blue sky and pleasant highs mostly in the 70s.

Tuesday afternoon there’s a slight chance for an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm as a trough skirts to our north.

Friday afternoon through next Sunday… A weak through will move the region. We’ll see more clouds and a few spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Precip amounts will be low.

Temps…

Sunday night lows will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s.

Monday through Friday will be in the low 70s to low 80s and lows will be in the high 30s to mid-40s.

Saturday and next Sunday highs will be in the high 60s to mid-70s and low will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s.

*** The cold spots in the valley could dip below freezing tonight. ***

What is a “cold spot”? Cold spots are in low-lying areas where the coldest air sinks to. These areas can be 5 degrees colder than the slightly higher spots nearby. If your low temp is often just below my forecast low temperature range, then you live in a cold spot. *** It’s a good idea to protect your sensitive plants tonight! ***

Winds… Gusts each afternoon gusts will mostly be around 20mph. As always, stronger isolated gusts are likely near a shower or thunderstorm.

WPC precip to next Sunday evening shows 0.08”” near Pagosa and up to 0.25” in our mountains. Most of this is expected Saturday and Sunday afternoons.
WPC precip to next Sunday evening shows 0.08”” near Pagosa and up to 0.25” in our mountains.
Most of this is expected Saturday and Sunday afternoons.

The 8-14 day period… The models are really flip-flopping for this period. We’re in the battleground between low pressure systems skirting to our north and the subtropical ridge trying to hang on to our south. It’s a typical transition season weather pattern. Stay tuned!

On the top, Euro ensemble precip to 29 Sep at 6am shows 0.69” in the Pagosa area. On the bottom, GFS ensemble precip shows 1.07”. That’s a big difference. I think the ridge will win so the Euro will be more accurate.
On the top, Euro ensemble precip to 29 Sep at 6am shows 0.69” in the Pagosa area. On the bottom, GFS ensemble precip shows 1.07”. That’s a big difference. I think the ridge will win so the Euro will be more accurate.

Unless something interesting pops up, the next post will be on Tuesday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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