Time to cut the bike ride short! Shaunna took this picture on 9/11/2025. Thanks for sharing!
Friday – 12 Sep 2025 – 1:00pm
The past…
Stevens Field Observations
Wednesday: High: 76, Low: 46, Minimum relative humidity: 29%, Peak Wind: 26mph
Thursday: High: 74, Low: 50, Minimum relative humidity: 35%, Peak Wind: 35mph
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 74 | 90 / 1945 | 39 | 28 / 1957 |
Precipitation summary… Bands of showers and thunderstorms have soaked much of the county in the last 2 days. It’s wonderful!
San Juan River levels…
Forecast discussion…
*** Things will get interesting later this afternoon and into the evening. ***
Forecast highlights…
*** Occasional showers and thunderstorms through Saturday afternoon. ***
*** Potential for a few isolated fast-moving severe thunderstorms with damaging hail and winds Friday afternoon into early Friday evening. ***
*** A FLOOD WATCH is out for the San Juan River Basin through Friday evening. ***
*** SNOW is possible above timberline Friday night and Saturday. ***
*** Saturday and Sunday nights the cold spots in the valley could dip below freezing. Protect your plants! ***
*** Next week there will be lots of blue sky and pleasant temps. ***
Rest of Friday through Saturday afternoon… The upper-level low is spinning over northern NV and moving slowly northeast. The trough will move through our area Saturday evening. Unstable, moist southerly flow ahead of the trough will continue to push bands of showers and thunderstorms through our area.
*** Expect brief periods of heavy rain, hail, gusty winds, and lightning. Friday afternoon and early Friday evening we could see an isolated severe thunderstorm with hail over a half inch and winds gusting over 40mph. ***
SNOW… The snow level will drop to around 12,500ft Friday night and then to around 12,000ft on Saturday. 12,000-13,000ft 1-3” of snow is possible. Peaks above 13,000ft could get 5-10” of snow.
Sunday through next Friday… A ridge will build over the region and give us nice weather with lots of blue sky and pleasant highs mostly in the 70s.
Temps…
Friday and Saturday highs will be in the low to high 60s. Friday night lows will be in the low to high 40s. Saturday night lows will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s.
Sunday highs will be in the high 60s to mid-70s. Sunday night lows will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s.
Monday through next Friday will be in the low 70s to low 80s and lows will be in the high 30s to mid-40s.
*** The cold spots in the valley could dip below freezing Saturday and Sunday nights. ***
What is a “cold spot”? Cold spots are in low-lying areas where the coldest air sinks to. These areas can be 5 degrees colder than the slightly higher spots nearby. If your low temp is often just below my forecast low temperature range, then you live in a cold spot. *** It’s a good idea to protect your sensitive plants Saturday and Sunday nights! ***
Winds… Gusts each afternoon gusts will mostly be around 20mph. As always, stronger isolated gusts are likely near a shower or thunderstorm.
The 8-14 day period… The models are really flip-flopping for this period. A weak low-pressure system could move through next weekend. We’re in the battleground between low pressure systems skirting to our north and the subtropical ridge trying to hang on to our south. It’s a typical transition season weather pattern. Stay tuned!
I don’t trust the 7-15 day period in the models. I think they continue to over-forecast precip.
Keep on eye on our Facebook page for quick updates. The next thorough forecast post will be on Sunday. I’ll include multi-day rain totals. They should be pretty impressive!
– Shawn
