Tommy admiring another glorious Pagosa Country sunset – Pic taken 9/9/2025
Wednesday – 10 Sep 2025 – 4:40pm
The past…
Stevens Field Observations
Monday: High: 78, Low: 40, Minimum relative humidity: 19%, Peak Wind: 28mph
Tuesday: High: 79, Low: 44, Minimum relative humidity: 18%, Peak Wind: 25mph
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 76 | 88 / 1945 | 39 | 27 / 1910 |
Precipitation summary… Yesterday most folks reported zero or a trace, but there were a couple of reports in the 0.02” to 0.05” range. On Monday Hidden Valley got 0.01” while everyone else got zero or a trace.
Forecast discussion…
Forecast highlights…
*** Soaking rain is on the way! ***
*** A FLOOD WATCH has been issued for the San Juan River Basin. ***
*** SNOW is possible above timberline Friday and Saturday. ***
*** Saturday and Sunday nights the cold spots could dip below freezing. ***
Wednesday afternoon through Saturday afternoon… A strong low-pressure system will move through northern CA and then spin around the northern Great Basin before ejecting northeast into western MT.
The ingredients are coming together for a decent storm: vertically stacked southwest flow, orographic lift, moisture, and instability.
Precip will come in waves as bands of showers and thunderstorms move through. Bursts of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning are likely, especially on Friday as storm ingredients line up the best.
*** A FLOOD WATCH has been issued for the San Juan River Basin through Thursday evening. I expect this to be extended to Friday evening. Our streams are too low to get near flood stage, but there could be a significant increase in flow. Low-lying areas could see minor flooding. ***
SNOW? The snow level could drop into the 12,000-12,500ft range Friday and Saturday. It will be heavy wet snow with temps near freezing so just an inch or two is possible near the tops of our peaks.
Sunday and Monday… A ridge will build over the region and give us nice weather with lots of blue sky and pleasant highs in the 70s.
Tuesday and next Wednesday… Some models expect a weak trough to move through while some expect the ridge to hold. At this time, I think the ridge will win and we’ll have nice weather.
Temps…
Wednesday night lows will be near 40 to the high 40s.
Thursday highs will be in the high 60s to high 70s and lows will be near 40 to the high 40s.
Friday and Saturday highs will be in the mid-60s to low 70s. Friday night lows will be in the high 30s to high 40s. Saturday night lows will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s.
Sunday and next Monday highs will be in the low to high 70s. Sunday night lows will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s. Monday night lows will be in the high 30s to mid-40s.
Tuesday and next Wednesday highs will be in the mid-70s to low 80s and lows will be in the high 30s to mid-40s.
*** The cold spots in the valley could dip below freezing Saturday and Sunday nights. ***
Winds… Gusts each afternoon gusts will be 20-25mph. As always, stronger isolated gusts are likely near a shower or thunderstorm.
Most of this is expected Thursday night into Friday evening.
The 8-14 day period… The models are really flip-flopping for this period. We’re in the battleground between low pressure systems skirting to our north and the subtropical ridge trying to hang on to our south. It’s a typical transition season weather pattern. Stay tuned!
Unless something interesting pops up, the next post will be on Friday.
– Shawn
