Full moon over Saddle Mountain – pic taken 12/26/2023
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Thursday – 28 Dec 2023 – 3:00pm
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 39. The low this morning was 8. The cold places are getting down to zero.
The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 8mph.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 36 | 54 / 1989 | 1 | -25 / 1988 |
Precipitation summary… There was no measurable precip reported in the last 24 hours.
Forecast discussion…
There is nothing on radar in our region this afternoon.
Forecast Highlights…
*** Dry with temps near to slightly above average into the first week of January. ***
*** A more typical El Nino pattern will try to set up the second part of next week. ***
Rest of today through Wednesday… Ridging will stick with us through Saturday and give us lots of sun and light winds. Sunday the ridge will move to our east.
A weak system will slide to our south Sunday night and another one will do the same on Tuesday, so we’ll see more clouds. I think we’ll stay dry, but there could be a stray snowshower over the mountains Sunday night and Tuesday. Temps will be near to slightly higher than seasonal averages.
Winds… Peaks will be 5-10mph.
Temps… Highs Thursday will be in the high 30s to mid-40s and lows will be in the mid-single digits to mid-teens. Friday and Saturday highs will range from near 40 to the mid-40s and lows will be in the high single digits to high teens. Highs Sunday through Wednesday will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows will be 10-20.
Two-week outlook… A more typical El Nino pattern will try to set up and things should get more active for us the second half of next week. The first couple of systems might miss us to the south, but there is hope!
The top graph shows 24-hour snow amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. I look for consistent amounts and consistent timing that should line up in a column. We start out dry and then there are two systems. System 1 is on the 4th and 5th. System 2 is on the 8th and 9th. The 10th through the 12th could remain active but that’s too far out to trust the models.
The middle graph shows the control and the mean snow totals from the 50 model runs in the top graph. I pay most attention to the mean and carefully track the trends. In this case, the mean for both systems is 2” and the range is roughly zero to 8”.
The bottom graph shows the running total snow amounts for the control and the mean. Again, I pay most attention to the mean and carefully track the trends. This ensemble forecast expects almost 7” by 12 Jan.
My next post will be on Saturday.
– Shawn
