Boring weather the next 6 days and then it gets more interesting…

Full moon over Saddle Mountain – pic taken 12/26/2023

Full moon over Saddle Mountain – pic taken 12/26/2023

If images fail to load in the email, please click the title of the post. Thanks!

Thursday – 28 Dec 2023 – 3:00pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 39. The low this morning was 8. The cold places are getting down to zero.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 8mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
3654 / 19891-25 / 1988

Precipitation summary… There was no measurable precip reported in the last 24 hours.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this afternoon – We have dry, northerly flow in our area. The main impact to our weather will be the ridge over the western US. It will keep us dry for the next 6 days.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon – We have dry, northerly flow in our area. The main impact to our weather will be the ridge over the western US. It will keep us dry for the next 6 days.

There is nothing on radar in our region this afternoon.

Forecast Highlights…

*** Dry with temps near to slightly above average into the first week of January. ***

*** A more typical El Nino pattern will try to set up the second part of next week. ***

Rest of today through Wednesday… Ridging will stick with us through Saturday and give us lots of sun and light winds. Sunday the ridge will move to our east.

A weak system will slide to our south Sunday night and another one will do the same on Tuesday, so we’ll see more clouds. I think we’ll stay dry, but there could be a stray snowshower over the mountains Sunday night and Tuesday. Temps will be near to slightly higher than seasonal averages.

Winds… Peaks will be 5-10mph.

Temps… Highs Thursday will be in the high 30s to mid-40s and lows will be in the mid-single digits to mid-teens. Friday and Saturday highs will range from near 40 to the mid-40s and lows will be in the high single digits to high teens. Highs Sunday through Wednesday will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows will be 10-20.

Two-week outlook… A more typical El Nino pattern will try to set up and things should get more active for us the second half of next week. The first couple of systems might miss us to the south, but there is hope!

Euro ensemble snow meteogram for Pagosa to 12 Jan – This is read left to right with the current time on the left and future times to the right. Times are in Zulu. There are 3 charts in this graphic.  I’ll start with the one at the top and work down. The top graph shows 24-hour snow amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. I look for consistent amounts and consistent timing that should line up in a column. We start out dry and then there are two systems. System 1 is on the 4th and 5th. System 2 is on the 8th and 9th. The 10th through the 12th could remain active but that’s too far out to trust the models. The middle graph shows the control and the mean snow totals from the 50 model runs in the top graph. I pay most attention to the mean and carefully track the trends. In this case, the mean for both systems is 2” and the range is roughly zero to 8”. The bottom graph shows the running total snow amounts for the control and the mean.  Again, I pay most attention to the mean and carefully track the trends. This ensemble forecast expects almost 7” by 12 Jan.
Euro ensemble snow meteogram for Pagosa to 12 Jan – This is read left to right with the current time on the left and future times to the right. Times are in Zulu. There are 3 charts in this graphic.  I’ll start with the one at the top and work down.

The top graph shows 24-hour snow amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. I look for consistent amounts and consistent timing that should line up in a column. We start out dry and then there are two systems. System 1 is on the 4th and 5th. System 2 is on the 8th and 9th. The 10th through the 12th could remain active but that’s too far out to trust the models.

The middle graph shows the control and the mean snow totals from the 50 model runs in the top graph. I pay most attention to the mean and carefully track the trends. In this case, the mean for both systems is 2” and the range is roughly zero to 8”.

The bottom graph shows the running total snow amounts for the control and the mean.  Again, I pay most attention to the mean and carefully track the trends. This ensemble forecast expects almost 7” by 12 Jan.
Euro ensemble snow map to 12 Jan shows 6-8” in the Pagosa area and 10-15” in our mountains. The forecast models need more time to dial in the details.
Euro ensemble snow map to 12 Jan shows 6-8” in the Pagosa area and 10-15” in our mountains. The forecast models need more time to dial in the details.

My next post will be on Saturday.

– Shawn

Pagosa Weather Blizzard Level Sponsor

Pagosa Weather Storm Sponsor

Picture of Shawn Pro

Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
Get Pagosa Weather Updates

Enter your email address to receive notifications of new posts by email.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Pagosa Weather Disclaimer and Release of Liability

This website makes no guarantees about nor bears any responsibility or liability concerning the accuracy or timeliness of the weather information published on this website. All weather information published on this website is for educational and weather enthusiast purposes only. We do not issue Storm Watches, Warnings or Advisories as that ability falls with the National Weather Service, who is the only institution allowed to issue such warnings by law. We are not in any way linked nor affiliated with the National Weather Service, although we do share information and relay weather watches/ warnings, etc. Use of the information on page is at your own risk/discretion, and we are not responsible for any personal/property damages, injury or death associated with weather forecasts, reports or other information as well as communication exchanged in private messages and/or person.

Terms of Use                  Privacy Policy

 

© 2024 Pagosa Weathe

Website Design by : Brandon