Quiet weather for a while…

A colorful sunset on the Eagle Peaks – pic taken 12/25/2023

A colorful sunset on the Eagle Peaks – pic taken 12/25/2023

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Tuesday – 26 Dec 2023 – 10:20am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 27. The low this morning was 6. Most areas had lows in the positive mid-single digits, but a few cold places got down to -4.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 6mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
3856 / 19803-30 / 1911

Precipitation summary… There was no measurable precip reported in the last 24 hours.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this morning – We have northerly flow around the low in the central plains. This just means partly cloudy skies for us today.  The ridge will build along the west coast and give us dry weather for a while.
Water vapor satellite this morning – We have northerly flow around the low in the central plains. This just means partly cloudy skies for us today.  The ridge will build along the west coast and give us dry weather for a while.
Radar this morning – Light snow continues to fall across eastern Colorado.
Radar this morning – Light snow continues to fall across eastern Colorado.

Forecast Highlights…

*** Dry with seasonal temps into the first week of January. ***

*** More active weather pattern starting the second half of the first week in January. ***

Rest of today through Saturday… Ridging will build over the region during the middle of the week and give us lots of sun and light winds. Temps will be below average today, and then near seasonal averages the rest of the week.

Winds… Peaks Tuesday afternoon will be 10-15mph. Wednesday through Saturday peaks will be 5-10mph.

Temps… Highs on Tuesday will be in the low to high 30s and lows will be in the low single digits to low teens. Highs Wednesday will be mid 30s to low 40s and lows will be in the low single digits to low teens. Highs Thursday in the high 30s to mid-40s and lows will be in the mid-single digits to mid-teens. Friday and Saturday highs will range from near 40 to the mid-40s and lows will be in the high single digits to high teens.

Sunday and Monday… A weak trough will move through. There will be very little storm energy and moisture. We’ll be lucky to get anything out of this one, but there’s a slight chance for a mountain snowshower or two. Lucky spots in the mountains could get an inch.

Winds… Peaks will be 10-15mph.

Temps… Highs will be in the high 30s to mid-40s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s.

NBM snow to Monday at 11pm shows a dusting in the Pagosa area and up to an inch in our mountains. At this point, I think we’ll be lucky to get anything out of this weak system.
NBM snow to Monday at 11pm shows a dusting in the Pagosa area and up to an inch in our mountains. At this point, I think we’ll be lucky to get anything out of this weak system.

Two-week outlook… The weather pattern will start getting active again starting around the 3rd. A more typical El Nino pattern will try to set up.

Euro ensemble snow meteogram for Pagosa to 10 Jan – This is read left to right with the current time on the left and future times to the right. Along the top are precip totals. This model is expecting 6.6” of snow by 10 Jan. The bottom graph shows the precip trend. This is encouraging.
Euro ensemble snow meteogram for Pagosa to 10 Jan – This is read left to right with the current time on the left and future times to the right. Along the top are precip totals. This model is expecting 6.6” of snow by 10 Jan. The bottom graph shows the precip trend. This is encouraging.
Euro ensemble snow map to 10 Jan shows 6-8” in the Pagosa area and 10-16” in our mountains. That far out I focus on trends, not specific amounts and timing. The forecast models need more time to dial in the details.
Euro ensemble snow map to 10 Jan shows 6-8” in the Pagosa area and 10-16” in our mountains. That far out I focus on trends, not specific amounts and timing. The forecast models need more time to dial in the details.
The CPC 8-14 day precip outlook valid 2-8 Jan is “leaning” towards above average precip in our area. This finally looks like a more typical El Nino pattern.
The CPC 8-14 day precip outlook valid 2-8 Jan is “leaning” towards above average precip in our area. This finally looks like a more typical El Nino pattern.

My next post will be on Thursday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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