More active weather pattern towards the end of next week…

Another colorful Pagosa Country sunrise – pic taken 12/30/2023

Another colorful Pagosa Country sunrise – pic taken 12/30/2023

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Saturday – 30 Dec 2023 – 9:00am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 45. The low this morning was 14. The cold places dipped into the mid-single digits. The upper Piedra River bridge was the coldest with a chilly -2.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 6mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
3555 / 19561-25 / 1909

Precipitation summary… There was no measurable precip reported in the last 24 hours.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this morning – The ridge is over our heads this morning. It will move to our east this afternoon and then upper-level southwest flow will push more clouds into the region. The low is going to move towards the Four Corners and fall apart before it reaches us Sunday night.
Water vapor satellite this morning – The ridge is over our heads this morning. It will move to our east this afternoon and then upper-level southwest flow will push more clouds into the region. The low is going to move towards the Four Corners and fall apart before it reaches us Sunday night.

There is nothing on radar in our region this morning.

Forecast Highlights…

*** Quiet through Wednesday and then a more typical El Nino pattern will set up. ***

Rest of today through Wednesday… The ridge will move to our east this afternoon.  Upper-level southwest flow will push more clouds into the region.

A weak system will slide to our south Sunday night and another one will do the same on Tuesday, so we’ll see more clouds. I think we’ll stay dry, but there could be a stray snowshower over the mountains Sunday night and Tuesday. Temps will be slightly warmer than seasonal averages Saturday and Sunday and then close to average the rest of the week.

Winds… Peaks will be 5-10mph.

Temps… Saturday and Sunday highs will range from near 40 to the mid-40s and lows will be in the high single digits to high teens. Highs Monday through Wednesday will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows will be 10-20.

Thursday and Friday… We’ll catch the northern edge of a system moving through NM. The best chance for precip is late Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. Wolf Creek Pass could get slick Thursday night.

Snow amounts…

Valley: 0-1”

Mountains: 1-4”

*** If this one moves a little farther north, we’ll get a little more snow. If it moves farther south, we’ll get none. Mark will dial in the details as the data gets better. ***

Winds… Peaks will be 10-15mph.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-30s to near 40. Lows Thursday night will be in the mid-teens to low 20s and lows Friday night will be in the mid-single digits to mid-teens.

NBM total liquid equivalent to Friday at 5pm shows 0.05” near Pagosa, 0.02” for Chama, and up to 0.20” for our mountains.  For snow this would equal 0.5” near Pagosa, 0.2” for Chama, and up to 4” in the mountains.
NBM total liquid equivalent to Friday at 5pm shows 0.05” near Pagosa, 0.02” for Chama, and up to 0.20” for our mountains.  For snow this would equal 0.5” near Pagosa, 0.2” for Chama, and up to 4” in the mountains. This looks reasonable to me at this point.

10-day outlook… A more typical El Nino pattern will set up and the pattern will be more active for us the second half of next week. The first couple of systems might miss us to the south, but a system on the 7th and 8th looks promising.

NBM total precip to Monday at 11pm shows 0.43” in the Pagosa area, 0.25” for Chama, and up to an inch in our mountains. For snow this would equal 4.3” near Pagosa, 2.5” for Chama, and up to 18” in the mountains. * Note that this includes precip from the first system. *
NBM total precip to Monday at 11pm shows 0.43” in the Pagosa area, 0.25” for Chama, and up to an inch in our mountains. For snow this would equal 4.3” near Pagosa, 2.5” for Chama, and up to 18” in the mountains. * Note that this includes precip from the first system. *

Mark will take over tomorrow. Let’s hope he has his hands full forecasting some snow!

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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