Precip amounts have decreased – ugh…

Tommy at Continental Reservoir near Creede. See the fall colors? – pic taken 9/5/2026

Saturday – 5 Sep 2026 – 4:45pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Thursday: High: 78, Low: 44, Peak wind: 24mph, Afternoon humidity: 22-27%

Friday: High: 79, Low: 47, Peak wind: 23mph, Afternoon humidity: 26-31%

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
78	94 / 1950	40	26 / 1971

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Current satellite and radar…

Water vapor satellite Saturday afternoon – Moisture, outlined in green, is slowly pushing into our area from the south and southwest. Storm action is still to our east where it’s more unstable. — Water vapor satellite Saturday afternoon – Archuleta County is circled in purple. Moisture, outlined in green, is slowly pushing into our area from the south and southwest. Storm action is still to our east where it’s more unstable.

There is nothing on radar in our area Saturday afternoon.

Forecast highlights…

*** Recent rain hasn’t been enough to ease fire danger. The San Juan National Forest and Archuleta County are under stage 1 fire restrictions. ***

*** Slight chance for an isolated storm through Tuesday. ***

*** Scattered storms Wednesday through next weekend. ***

Sunday through Tuesday… Things aren’t lining up. Precip amounts for this period have dropped significantly. There will be a few spotty storms starting Sunday night and then Monday and Tuesday afternoons and evenings. Precip amounts will be low.

Wednesday and Thursday… The high will strengthen over the central plains and help push monsoon moisture and instability back into our area.

Hit and miss storms will be capable of short periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.

Friday through next weekend… I see potential for a few spotty afternoon and evening storms, but my forecast confidence is low for this period.

Temps…

Saturday night lows will be near 40 to the high 40s.

Sunday through next weekend highs will be in the high 70s to the mid 80s. Friday and Saturday lows will be in the low 40s to near 50.

Winds…

Each afternoon gusts will be 20-25mph.

*** As always, isolated stronger gusts are likely near showers and thunderstorms. ***

NBM precip through next weekend (13 Sep) shows 0.23” in the Pagosa area and up to 0.75” in our mountains. Precip amounts have decreased significantly. It’s all from convective spotty storms, so amounts will vary.

12 Sep to 20 Sep… The forecast models vary from a decent monsoon pattern – wet, to transient troughs skirting well to our north – dry. Forecast confidence is low for this period.

*Euro ensemble precip to 20 Sep shows 2.22” in the Pagosa area. Euro precip amounts over the last few days have increased while other models have decreased.*

This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 20 Sep. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control, mean, and range of the 50 versions. It’s dry through most of Sunday. Starting Sunday night and going through Tuesday, there’s a chance for a few spotty showers with low precip amounts. Wednesday and Thursday there’s a good chance for scattered showers. The rest of the period looks active, but the models are all over the place so I don’t trust them. — This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 20 Sep. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control, mean, and range of the 50 versions.
It’s dry through most of Sunday. Starting Sunday night and going through Tuesday, there’s a chance for a few spotty showers with low precip amounts. Wednesday and Thursday there’s a good chance for scattered showers. The rest of the period looks active, but the models are all over the place so I don’t trust them.

The next post will be on Monday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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