Mostly dry this week – looks good next week…

Beautiful day at Continental Reservoir near Creede – pic taken 9/5/2026

Monday – 7 Sep 2026 – 4:00pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Saturday: High: 82, Low: 46, Peak wind: 22mph, Afternoon humidity: 20-25%

Sunday: High: 83, Low: 44, Peak wind: 23mph, Afternoon humidity: 19-24%

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
77	87 / 1945	39	27 / 1912

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Current satellite and radar…

Water vapor satellite Monday afternoon – Archuleta County is circled in red. A monsoon moisture plume is over our heads – outlined in green. We are on the purple line between stable vs unstable conditions. Over the next few days, drier and mor stable air will move in from the north. — Water vapor satellite Monday afternoon – Archuleta County is circled in red. A monsoon moisture plume is over our heads – outlined in green. We are on the purple line between stable vs unstable conditions. Over the next few days, drier and more stable air will move in from the north.

*Radar at 3:36pm Monday – Scattered light showers outlined in blue are to our east and south. Outlined in purple is mostly virga. Showers are moving towards the northeast.*

Forecast highlights…

*** It continues to be dry and warm with breezy afternoons. The San Juan National Forest and Archuleta County are under stage 1 fire restrictions. ***

*** Mostly dry and warm with breezy afternoons through Saturday. ***

*** Scattered storms next week. It looks wet but I’ve been wrong about that all summer! ***

Rest of Monday we have moisture and a little instability so there’s a slight chance for an isolated storm, mostly over the mountains.

Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday are dry and stable.

Friday and Saturday moisture and instability will gradually increase. There’s a slight chance for an isolated storm, mostly over the mountains.

Sunday through next week… A decent monsoon pattern will try to set up, especially the second half of the week. Of course, I’ve been saying that all summer. Hopefully I’ll be right this time!

Temps…

Monday night lows will be in the mid 40s to the low 50s.

Tuesday through Saturday highs will be in the high 70s to the mid 80s and lows will be in the low to high 40s.

Sunday and next Monday highs will be in the mid 70s to the low 80s and lows will be in the low to high 40s.

Winds…

Each afternoon gusts will be 20-25mph.

*** As always, isolated stronger gusts are likely near showers and thunderstorms. ***

WPC precip next Monday afternoon (14 Sep) shows 0.36” in the Pagosa area and up to 0.50” in our mountains. This is mostly expected Sunday and next Monday. It’s all from convective spotty storms, so amounts will vary.

14 Sep to 22 Sep… The forecast models show a wet pattern the second half of next week, but I don’t trust them. Forecast confidence is low for this period.

*Euro ensemble precip to 22 Sep shows 1.88” in the Pagosa area. Most of this is expected during the second half of the period. Precip amounts over the last few days have decreased.*

This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 22 Sep. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control, mean, and range of the 50 versions. It’s mostly dry through Saturday. Starting Sunday night and going through the rest of the period, it looks active. It looks best lake next week. Take it all with a grain of salt because the models have stunk this summer! — This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 22 Sep. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control, mean, and range of the 50 versions.
It’s mostly dry through Saturday. Starting Sunday afternoon and going through the rest of the period, it looks active. It looks best late next week. Take it all with a grain of salt because the models have stunk this summer!

The next post will be on Wednesday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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