Playing the rain lottery for a while…

I enjoy watching our evening lightning shows – pic taken 8/19/2026

Tuesday – 25 Aug 2026 – 5:20pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Sunday: High: 85, Low: 48, Peak wind: 31mph, Afternoon humidity: 20-25%

Monday: High: 80, Low: 53, Peak wind: 23mph, Afternoon humidity: 30-36%

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
79	87 / 1985	43	33 / 1975

Precipitation summary… Monday’s rain lottery winner only got 0.04”, but Sunday the winner got 0.71”!

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour rain reported Monday morning ranged from 0.02” to 0.71”. The center part of the county did best again.*
*I circled the pockets of heavier precip.*

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour rain reported Tuesday morning ranged from zero to 0.04”. Most of the county nothing or just a few drops.*

Current satellite and radar…

Water vapor satellite Tuesday afternoon – The high is over southeast NM. Storm development is most favorable over eastern CO and eastern NM. The atmosphere have stabilized over much of the Four Corners region. — Water vapor satellite Tuesday afternoon – The high is over southeast NM. Storm development is most favorable over eastern CO and eastern NM. The atmosphere has stabilized over much of the Four Corners region.

*Radar at 5:02pm Tuesday – Showers in our area have mostly been “mountain huggers” moving west to east. Most of the action is along the I-25 corridor.*

Forecast highlights…

*** Recent storms have been spotty, so fire danger remains high. The San Juan National Forest and Archuleta County are under stage 1 fire restrictions. ***

*** Scattered afternoon and evening storms each day. We will continue to play rain lottery. ***

Rest of Tuesday through next Tuesday… The high will gradually shift from central NM to the central plains. Friday, Saturday, and Sunday a trough will skirt the US/CA border which will temporarily weaken the ridge.

Moisture and instability will remain marginal leading to spotty showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening.

Temps…

Tuesday night lows will be in the mid 40s to the low 50s.

Wednesday through Saturday highs will be in the low 80s to near 90 and lows will be in the mid 40s to the low 50s.

Sunday through next Tuesday highs will be in the mid 70s to the mid 80s and lows will be in the low 40s to the low 50s.

Winds…

Wednesday through Friday, each afternoon gusts will be around 20mph.

Saturday through next Tuesday, each afternoon gusts will be around 25mph.

*** As always, isolated stronger gusts are likely near showers and thunderstorms. ***

*WPC precip to next Tuesday afternoon (1 Sep) shows 0.14” in the Pagosa area and up to 0.60” in our mountains. This is all convective precip from showers so amounts will vary considerably.*

1 Sep to 9 Sep… The forecast models are all over the place for this period. This is typical when we transition from summer to fall.

Some models indicate a trough or two moving through the region and the high weakening and staying well to our east – dead monsoon. Other models indicate the troughs staying well to our north and the high rebounding quickly – weak monsoon.

For now, I’m going with the “weak monsoon” scenario. Moisture and instability will remain marginal leading to a spotty storm or two most afternoons.

*Euro ensemble precip to 9 Sep shows 1.23” in the Pagosa area. Precip amounts have decreased a little over the last few days.*

This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 9 Sep. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control, mean, and range of the 50 versions. It indicates spotty afternoon and evening showers through next Tuesday. Then there’s a lull 2-6 Sep. The models are all over the place the last few days of this period. — This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 9 Sep. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control, mean, and range of the 50 versions.
*It indicates spotty afternoon and evening showers through next Tuesday. Then there’s a lull 2-6 Sep. The models are all over the place the last few days of this period.*

The next post will be Thursday afternoon.

– Shawn

Pagosa Weather Blizzard Level Sponsor

Pagosa Weather Snowman Level Sponsors

Pagosa Weather Snowball Level Sponsors

Pagosa Weather Storm Sponsor

Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Support Pagosa Weather

Contact Us

Pagosa Weather Disclaimer and Release of Liability

This website makes no guarantees about nor bears any responsibility or liability concerning the accuracy or timeliness of the weather information published on this website. All weather information published on this website is for educational and weather enthusiast purposes only. We do not issue Storm Watches, Warnings or Advisories as that ability falls with the National Weather Service, who is the only institution allowed to issue such warnings by law. We are not in any way linked nor affiliated with the National Weather Service, although we do share information and relay weather watches/ warnings, etc. Use of the information on page is at your own risk/discretion, and we are not responsible for any personal/property damages, injury or death associated with weather forecasts, reports or other information as well as communication exchanged in private messages and/or person.

Terms of Use Privacy Policy

Website Design by : Brandon