Scattered storms through Thursday…

Ominous clouds over Pagosa Peak Sunday afternoon – pic taken 8/23/2026 at 1:40pm

Sunday – 23 Aug 2026 – 3:45pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Friday: High: 89, Low: 51, Peak wind: 23mph, Afternoon humidity: 16-21%

Saturday: High: 85, Low: 48, Peak wind: 31mph, Afternoon humidity: 22-25%

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
80	91 / 1910	44	29 / 1956

Precipitation summary… There have been spotty showers the last few days. Some folks get a good soaking while others hardly get anything.

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour rain reported Saturday morning ranged from zero to 0.20”. Most locations got less than 0.05”.*

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour rain reported Sunday morning ranged from 0.04” to 0.79”. The central part of the county did quite well.*

Current satellite and radar…

Satellite and lightning loop 2pm to 3pm Sunday – Storms with lots of lightning developed over the mountains and then moved through the county. — *Satellite and lightning loop 2pm to 3pm Sunday – Storms with lots of lightning developed over the mountains and then moved south through the county.*

*Radar at 3:20pm Sunday – Much of the county got some rain Sunday afternoon. Storms are moving towards the east-northeast.*

Forecast highlights…

*** Recent storms have been spotty so fire danger remains high. The San Juan National Forest and Archuleta County are under stage 1 fire restrictions. ***

*** Scattered afternoon and evening storms each day through Thursday. Less active the second half of the week, but there’s a still chance for a spotty storm or two. We will continue to play rain lottery. ***

Rest of Sunday through Thursday… The high is currently over the Four Corners and will move slowly south towards southern NM. Moisture and instability are decent through Thursday and then decrease.

Through Tuesday, some storms will be capable of producing short periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.

Friday through next Weekend… The high will be over the AZ/NM/MX border while the first fall-like system of the year skirts the US/CA border. This will flatten out our ridge and cut off monsoon moisture and instability.

There’s still a chance few for a spotty storm or two each afternoon, mostly over the mountains. Consider yourself lucky if you get a few raindrops.

Temps…

Sunday night lows will be in the high 40s to the mid 50s.

Monday through next Sunday highs will be in the low 80s to the low 90s and mid 40s to the low 50s.

Winds…

Each afternoon gusts will be around 20mph though isolated stronger gusts are likely near showers and thunderstorms.

*WPC precip to next Sunday afternoon (30 Aug) shows 0.10” in the Pagosa area and up to 0.75” in our mountains. This is all convective precip from showers so amounts will vary considerably.*

30 Aug to 7 Sep… The high will weaken and move towards the southern plains while another fall-like low-pressure system moves through the Pacific NW. This will weaken the sub-tropical ridge and cut off monsoon moisture.

We will have marginal instability and marginal moisture for spotty afternoon and evening storms. Precip amounts are not impressive.

Euro ensemble precip to 7 Sep shows 1.16” in the Pagosa area. Precip amounts have bounced around over the last few days. — *Euro ensemble precip to 7 Sep shows 1.16” in the Pagosa area.*
*Precip amounts have bounced around over the last few days.*

This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 7 Sep. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control, mean, and range of the 50 versions. We will have scattered afternoon and evening showers through Thursday. The rest of the period will be less active, but there’s still a chance for a few spotty showers every day. It’s better than nothing! — This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 7 Sep. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control, mean, and range of the 50 versions.
We will have scattered afternoon and evening showers through Thursday. The rest of the period will be less active, but there’s still a chance for a few spotty showers every day. It’s better than nothing!

The next post will be Tuesday afternoon.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

2 Responses

Bill B. says:

August 23, 2026 at 4:09 pm

Corner of Eaton and Park Ave., Pagosa Lakes received 0.22″ on 08/22 and so far has received 0.25″ today 08/23. Still getting light showers.

Reply
1. Arleen Pro says:
  
  August 27, 2026 at 5:12 pm
  
  Thank you for the report, Bill.
  
  Reply

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