Scattered storms through Wednesday…

Tommy relaxed in his favorite spot while the sun sets behind the mountains – pic taken 8/19/2026

Friday – 21 Aug 2026 – 4:50pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Wednesday: High: 88, Low: 49, Peak wind: 24mph, Afternoon humidity: 17-22%

Thursday: High: 86, Low: 50, Peak wind: 35mph, Afternoon humidity: 19-25%

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
79	90 / 1910	44	28 / 1964

Precipitation summary… There have been spotty showers the last few days. Some folks get a good soaking while others hardly get anything.

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour rain reported Thursday morning ranged from zero to 0.31”.*

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour rain reported Friday morning ranged from zero to 0.35”.*

Current satellite and radar…

*Satellite and lightning loop 3:16pm to 4:16pm Friday – The high is over the Four Corners. Scattered storms are spinning clockwise around the high.*

*Radar at 4:30pm Friday – A band of scattered showers moved east to west across the county Friday afternoon.*

Forecast highlights…

*** Fire danger remains high. Warm, breezy afternoons have dried things out. The San Juan National Forest and Archuleta County are under stage 1 fire restrictions. ***

*** Scattered afternoon and evening storms each day through Wednesday. Less active the second half of the week, but there’s a still chance for a few spotty storms. We will continue to play rain lottery. ***

Rest of Friday through Wednesday… The high is currently over the Four Corners and will move slowly south towards southern NM. Moisture and instability are decent through Wednesday and then decrease.

This weekend some storms will be capable of producing short periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.

Thursday through next Friday… The high will be over the AZ/NM/MX border. Moisture and instability will decrease leading to less storm activity. A few spotty storms are possible each afternoon, mostly over the mountains. Consider yourself lucky if you get a few raindrops.

Temps…

Friday night lows will be in the high 40s to the mid 50s.

Saturday through next Friday highs will be in the mid 80s to the low 90s and mid 40s to the low 50s.

Winds…

Each afternoon gusts will be around 20mph though isolated stronger gusts are likely near showers and thunderstorms.

WPC precip to next Friday evening (28 Aug) shows less than 0.13” in the Pagosa area and up to 0.75” in our mountains. This is all convective precip from showers so amounts will vary considerably. — *WPC precip to next Friday evening (28 Aug) shows 0.13” in the Pagosa area and up to 0.75” in our mountains. This is all convective precip from showers so amounts will vary considerably.*

28 Aug to 5 Sep… The high is expected to be to our south while the first fall-like low pressure system moves through the Pacific NW. This weakens the sub-tropical ridge and cuts off monsoon moisture.

We will have marginal instability and marginal moisture for spotty afternoon and evening storms. Precip amounts are not impressive.

*Euro ensemble precip to 5 Sep shows 1.00” in the Pagosa area.*

This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 5 Sep. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control, mean, and range of the 50 versions. We will have scattered afternoon and evening showers through Wednesday with Saturday and Sunday being the most active. The rest of the period will be less active, but there’s still a chance for a few spotty showers every day. It’s better than nothing! — This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 5 Sep. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control, mean, and range of the 50 versions.
We will have scattered afternoon and evening showers through Wednesday with Saturday and Sunday being the most active. The rest of the period will be less active, but there’s still a chance for a few spotty showers every day. It’s better than nothing!

The next post will be Sunday afternoon.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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