Clouds brewing over Pagosa Peak Wednesday afternoon – pic taken 8/19/2026
Wednesday – 19 Aug 2026 – 4:10pm
The past…
Stevens Field Observations
Monday: High: 86, Low: 47, Peak wind: 20mph, Afternoon humidity: 13-18%
Tuesday: High: 88, Low: 50, Peak wind: 28mph, Afternoon humidity: 14-19%
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 80 | 92 / 1986 | 44 | 27 / 1950 |
Precipitation summary… A few parts of Archuleta County got rain today! That will be included in tomorrow’s reports. There was no measurable rain Monday and Tuesday.
Current satellite and radar…
Forecast highlights…
*** Fire danger remains high. Warm, breezy afternoons have dried things out. The San Juan National Forest and Archuleta County are under stage 1 fire restrictions. ***
*** Scattered afternoon and evening storms each day through the weekend. Less active next week, but there’s a still chance for a few spotty storms. We will continue to play rain lottery. ***
Thursday through Sunday… The high has slid back towards the Four Corners. It will drag a little more moisture and instability with it so there will be scattered storms each afternoon and evening. Some storms will be capable of producing short periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
Monday through next Wednesday… The high will be over the AZ/NM/MX border. Moisture and instability will decrease leading to less storm activity. A few spotty storms are possible each afternoon, mostly over the mountains. Precip amounts will be low.
Temps…
Wednesday night lows will be in the mid 40s to the mid 50s.
Thursday and Friday highs will be in the mid 80s to the low 90s and lows will be in the high 40s to the mid 50s.
Saturday through next Wednesday highs will be in the low to high 80s and mid 40s to the low 50s.
Winds…
Each afternoon gusts will be around 20mph though isolated stronger gusts are likely near showers and thunderstorms.
This is all convective precip from showers so amounts will vary considerably.
26 Aug to 3 Sep… The high is expected to be to our south while the first fall-like low pressure system moves through the Pacific NW – not good for us.
We will have marginal instability and marginal moisture for spotty afternoon and evening storms. Precip amounts are not impressive.
This model shows scattered showers through Tuesday or next Wednesday. Shower activity peaks Saturday and Sunday and then tapers off. Other products expect scattered showers through the weekend and then less activity next week.
Though the pattern is expected to be less active, at least there’s still a chance for a few spotty showers every day. It’s better than nothing!
The next post will be Friday afternoon.
– Shawn
