Hit and miss showers starting Wednesday – low precip amounts

Love this view of the Rio Grande Valley near Wagon Wheel Gap – pic taken 8/16/2026

Monday – 17 Aug 2026 – 4:45pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Saturday: High: 81, Low: 52, Peak wind: 22mph, Afternoon humidity: 16-21%

Sunday: High: 83, Low: 44, Peak wind: 24mph, Afternoon humidity: 13-18%

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
80	90 / 1940	45	29 / 1950

Precipitation summary… There has been no measurable precip in the last few days.

Current satellite and radar…

Water vapor satellite Monday afternoon – The high over northern AZ is pushing weak, dry, stable flow out of the northwest over us. The pattern will shift slowly west over the next days and bring the moisture and instability currently over NM towards us.

*Radar at 4:20pm Monday – It’s quiet over Archuleta County. There are spotty weak storms to our southeast and south.*

Forecast highlights…

*** Fire danger remains high. Warm, breezy afternoons have dried things out. The San Juan National Forest and Archuleta County are under stage 1 fire restrictions. ***

*** Slight chance for a spotty shower Monday through Wednesday, mostly over the mountains. The rest of the week will be a little more active, but precip amounts will be low. We will continue to play rain lottery. ***

Rest of Monday through Wednesday… The subtropical high is finally to our east – where we want it! However… moisture and instability are marginal.

There’s a slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm, mostly over the mountains. Consider yourself lucky if you get a few raindrops.

Thursday through next Monday… The high will slide back towards the Four Corners. It will drag a little more moisture and instability with it so there will be a few more storms each afternoon and evening. Storms will be hit and miss – precip amounts will be low.

Temps…

Monday night lows will be in the mid 40s to the lows 50s.

Tuesday through Saturday highs will be in the mid 80s to the low 90s and lows will be in the high 40s to the mid 50s.

Sunday and next Monday highs will be in the low to high 80s and high 40s to the mid 50s.

Winds…

Each afternoon gusts will be around 20mph though isolated stronger gusts are likely near showers and thunderstorms.

NBM precip to next Monday evening (24 Aug) shows less than 0.15” in the Pagosa area and up to 0.70” in our mountains. Precip amounts have stayed pretty steady. — *NBM precip to next Monday evening (24 Aug) shows 0.15” in the Pagosa area and up to 0.70” in our mountains. Precip amounts have stayed pretty steady.*

24 Aug to 1 Sep… Initially the high will be over northern TX – good. By 29 or 30 Aug it will be over southern NM – meh. By the end of the period the high is expected to be over the Central Plains while the first fall-like low pressure system moves through the Pacific NW – not good for us.

For us, this means marginal instability and marginal moisture for spotty afternoon and evening storms. Precip amounts are not impressive.

*Euro ensemble precip to 1 Sep shows 0.99” in the Pagosa area. Forecast precip amounts have pretty steady over the last two days.*

This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 1 Sep. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control, mean, and range of the 50 versions. There’s a slight chance for a shower through Wednesday. It’s a little more active Thursday through the 25th or 26th, and then there’s a weaker chance the rest of the period. — This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 1 Sep. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control, mean, and range of the 50 versions.
*There’s a slight chance for a shower through Wednesday. It’s a little more active Thursday through the 25^th or 26^th, and then there’s a weaker chance the rest of the period.*

The next post will be Wednesday afternoon.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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