Quiet through Wednesday and then a little more active…

I call those clouds “pancake cu”. Cu is short for cumulus. They are also known as “fair weather cumulus”. They indicate stable conditions and dry weather.  – pic taken 8/15/2026

I call those clouds “pancake cu”. Cu is short for cumulus. They are also known as “fair weather cumulus”. They indicate stable conditions and dry weather.  – pic taken 8/15/2026

Saturday – 15 Aug 2026 – 4:30pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Thursday: High: 78, Low: 53, Peak wind: 23mph, Afternoon humidity: 32-36%

Friday: High: 80, Low: 53, Peak wind: 25mph, Afternoon humidity: 26-30%

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8090 / 19624432 / 1950

Precipitation summary… Very little rain has fallen in our area during the last few days.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reported Friday morning ranged from zero to 0.02”. Most folks got nothing.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reported Friday morning ranged from zero to 0.02”. Most folks got nothing.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour  precip reported Saturday morning ranged from zero to 0.05”.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour  precip reported Saturday morning ranged from zero to 0.05”.

Current satellite and radar…

Water vapor satellite loop Saturday afternoon – Dry, stable air has moved over the Four Corners region from the southwest.
Water vapor satellite loop Saturday afternoon – Dry, stable air has moved over the Four Corners region from the southwest.
Radar at 4:04pm Sunday – It’s dry and stable over western CO and the opposite over eastern CO.
Radar at 4:04pm Sunday – It’s dry and stable over western CO and the opposite over eastern CO.

Forecast highlights…

*** Fire danger remains high. Warm, breezy afternoons have dried things out. The San Juan National Forest and Archuleta County are under stage 1 fire restrictions. ***

 *** Dry through the weekend and then a slight chance for a spotty shower Monday through Wednesday. The rest of the week will be a little more active, but precip amounts will be low. We will continue to play the rain lottery. ***

Rest of Saturday through Wednesday… The subtropical high is finally to our east – where we want it! However…

Moisture and instability have decreased in our area. It will be dry through the weekend and then Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday there’s a slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm, mostly over the mountains. Consider yourself lucky if you get a few raindrops.

Thursday through next weekend… The high will slide back towards the Four Corners. It will drag a little more moisture and instability with it so there will be a few more storms each afternoon and evening. Storms will be hit and miss – precip amounts will be low.

Temps…

Saturday night lows will be in the high 40s to the mid 50s.

Sunday through Tuesday highs will be in the low to high 80s and lows will be in the in high 40s to the mid 50s.

Wednesday through next Saturday highs will be in the mid 80s to the low 90s and lows will be in the high 40s to the mid 50s.

Winds…

Each afternoon gusts will be around 20mph though isolated stronger gusts are likely near showers and thunderstorms.

NBM precip to next Sunday evening (23 Aug) shows less than 0.05” in the Pagosa area and up to 0.20” in our mountains. Precip amounts have trended significantly down.
NBM precip to next Sunday evening (23 Aug) shows less than 0.05” in the Pagosa area and up to 0.20” in our mountains. Precip amounts have trended significantly down.

22 Aug to 30 Aug… The forecast models can’t agree for this time period. Some keep the high to our east, where want it, while others keep it closer to the Four Corners, where we don’t want it. I think we will see spotty storms each afternoon and evening, but it doesn’t look impressive.

Euro ensemble precip to 30 Aug shows 1.10” in the Pagosa area. Forecast precip amounts have bounced around over the last two days.
Euro ensemble precip to 30 Aug shows 1.10” in the Pagosa area. Forecast precip amounts have bounced around over the last two days.
This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 30 Aug. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control, mean, and range of the 50 versions. It’s dry through the weekend and then there’s a slight chance for a shower through Wednesday. It’s a little more active through the rest of the period.
This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 30 Aug. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control, mean, and range of the 50 versions.
It’s dry through the weekend and then there’s a slight chance for a shower through Wednesday. It’s a little more active through the rest of the period.

The next post will be Monday afternoon.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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2 Responses

  1. New permanent resident to Pagosa Springs and found your website. Appreciate the local forecasts and perspective.

    Reply

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