Monsoon action for a while…

Little cumulus clouds at 9:30am turn into big cumulus clouds by 11:15am – pics taken 7/24/2026

Friday – 24 Jul 2026 – 5:30pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Wednesday: High: 80, Low: 53, Peak wind: 21mph, Afternoon humidity: 32-37%

Thursday: High: 80, Low: 54, Peak wind: 45mph, Afternoon humidity: 37-41%

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
82	92 / 1940	47	35 / 1973

Precipitation summary… A few locations got decent rain on Wednesday, but it was disappointing for most of us. Monsoon showers continue to be hit and miss. Some folks get a good soaking while others hardly get anything.

*CoCoRaHS 24hr precip reported Thursday morning ranged from 0.06” to 0.46”. Most locations got 0.05” to 0.25”.*

*CoCoRaHS 24hr precip reported Friday morning ranged from zero to 0.17”. Most locations got less than 0.05”.*

Current satellite and radar…

*Water vapor satellite loop 4:06pm to 5:01pm Friday – Monsoon moisture is spinning around the high over the Four Corners. Flow over us is weak out of the northwest.*

*Radar at 5:10pm Friday – A couple of showers and thunderstorms have popped up over a few lucky spots in Archuleta County. Storms are “slow-movers” and soaking small areas.*

Forecast highlights…

*** Fire danger remains high. The entire San Juan National Forest is under stage 2 fire restrictions while Archuleta County is under stage 1 restrictions. ***

*** MONSOON action is here for a while – yay! Scattered afternoon and evening storms are likely every day. Let it rain! ***

Rest of Friday and through the following week… Monsoon moisture and instability will stick with us. We will have scattered storms each afternoon and evening. Storms will be capable of producing short periods of heavy, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning rain over small areas.

Reminder… “scattered” means that not everyone will get hit every day.

Temps…

Friday night lows will be in the low to high 50s.

Saturday though next Saturday highs will be in the mid 80s to low 90s and lows will be in the low to high 50s.

Winds…

Each afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph though isolated stronger gusts are likely near showers and thunderstorms.

*WPC precip to late Thursday evening shows 0.43” in the Pagosa area and up to 2.25” in our mountains. It’s all convective showery precip, so amounts will vary considerably.*

24 Jul to 8 Aug… The subtropical high pressure will wobble around the Four Corners region. Some days will be more active than others, but it looks good!

*Euro ensemble precip to 8 Aug shows 1.81” in the Pagosa area. Forecast precip amounts have bounced around a little over the last two days.*

This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 8 Aug. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control, mean, and range of the 50 versions. It’s active through the whole period. This is how our monsoon season should look! — This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 8 Aug. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control, mean, and range of the 50 versions.
*It’s active through the whole period. This is how our monsoon season should look!*

The next post will be Sunday afternoon.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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