Rain dances are working!…

Pagosa Country sunset after a monsoon storm – pic taken 7/24/2026

Sunday – 26 Jul 2026 – 6:00pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Friday: High: 89, Low: 54, Peak wind: 24mph, Afternoon humidity: 22-30%

Saturday: High: 89, Low: 53, Peak wind: 21mph, Afternoon humidity: 22-30%

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
82	91 / 2023	47	31 / 1913

Precipitation summary… Monsoon showers continue to be hit and miss. Some folks get a good soaking while others hardly get anything.

*CoCoRaHS 24hr precip reported Saturday morning ranged from zero to 0.48”. Most locations got less than 0.10”.*

*CoCoRaHS 24hr precip reported Sunday morning ranged from zero to 0.70”.*

These are 2-day rain totals near Hatcher Lake. These locations are less than 2 miles from each other, and totals range from 0.02” to 0.30” to 0.42” and 1.21”. These monsoon storms are very random and often hit just small areas. — *These are 2-day rain totals near Hatcher Lake. These locations are less than 2 miles from each other, and totals range from 0.02” to 0.30” to 0.42” and 1.21”.*
*This is a good example of how these monsoon storms are very random and often hit just small areas.*

Current satellite and radar…

*Water vapor satellite loop 4:36pm to 5:31pm Sunday – Big ole moisture-laden thunderstorms blew up over much of Archuleta County Sunday afternoon.*

Radar at 5:38pm Sunday – It has rained over good chunk of Archuleta County Sunday afternoon. Storms are “slow-movers” and soaking small areas. On this graphic, light and dark green is light rain. Yellow and red is moderate to heavy rain, possibly mixed with small hail.

Forecast highlights…

*** Fire danger remains high. The entire San Juan National Forest is under stage 2 fire restrictions while Archuleta County is under stage 1 restrictions. ***

*** MONSOON action is here for a while – yay! Scattered afternoon and evening storms are likely every day. Let it rain! ***

Rest of Sunday and through the week… Monsoon moisture and instability will stick with us. We will have scattered storms each afternoon and evening. Storms will be capable of producing short periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning rain over small areas.

Reminder… “scattered” means that not everyone will get hit every day.

Temps…

Sunday night lows will be in the low to high 50s.

Monday through next Sunday highs will be in the mid 80s to low 90s and lows will be in the low to high 50s.

Winds…

Each afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph though isolated stronger gusts are likely near showers and thunderstorms.

*NBM precip to late next Sunday evening shows 0.48” in the Pagosa area and up to 1.40” in our mountains. It’s all convective showery precip, so amounts will vary considerably.*

26 Jul to 10 Aug… The subtropical high pressure will wobble around the Four Corners region. Some days will be more active than others, but it looks good!

*Euro ensemble precip to 10 Aug shows 1.45” in the Pagosa area. Forecast precip amounts have trended down over the last two days.*

This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 10 Aug. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control, mean, and range of the 50 versions. It’s active through the whole period. The highest precip amounts are Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, and then precip amounts decrease. — This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 10 Aug. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control, mean, and range of the 50 versions.
*It’s active through the whole period. The highest precip amounts are Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, and then precip amounts decrease.*

The next post will be Tuesday afternoon.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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