Warm, dry, and breezy through Wednesday…

A beautiful Pagosa Country sunset! – pic taken 6/18/2026

Saturday – 20 Jun 2026 – 5:00pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Thursday: High: 89, Low: 44, Peak wind: 28mph, Afternoon humidity: 9-11%

Friday: High: 89, Low: 48, Peak wind: 29mph, Afternoon humidity: 11-13%

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
80	92 / 1989	37	28 / 1973

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Current satellite and radar…

Water vapor satellite Saturday afternoon – Purple arrows indicate upper-level flow. The gradient is getting “pinched” between the low to our north and the high to our south and causing gusty winds and dry conditions across the Four Corners region. We are stuck with this pattern through Wednesday.

There is nothing on radar in our area Saturday afternoon.

Forecast highlights…

*** RED FLAG WARNING Saturday to 10pm. ***

*** Breezy afternoons, mostly dry, and warm for the next 10-14 days. FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN HIGH. ***

*** Thursday and Friday afternoons there is a chance for a few scattered showers and thunderstorms. Unfortunately rain amounts will be low. Concerned about new lightning fires. ***

*** I do not see the monsoon setting up for us in June. ***

Rest of Saturday… The upper-level ridge has moved to our east. Stronger and drier southwest flow has moved over the region.

Sunday through Wednesday morning… High pressure will be to our south and low pressure will be to our north. Upper-level flow will be out of the west and keep us dry. It will remain sunny and warm with breezy afternoons.

Wednesday afternoon through Friday evening… A little moisture and instability will kick up a few scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. It’s a weak chance Wednesday, and then a better chance Thursday and Friday. Precip amounts will be low and spotty.

*** Fire danger will remain high and lightning fires are possible. ***

Friday night through next weekend… A low-pressure system will move through Idaho and then Montana. It will bring us strong, dry flow out of the southwest. Humidity in the low to mid teens and wind gusting 30-35mph will lead to CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS.

Temps…

Saturday night lows will be near 40 to the high 40s.

Sunday through Wednesday highs will be in the mid 80s to the low 90s and lows will be near 40 to the high 40s.

Thursday, Friday, and next Saturday highs will be in the high 70s to the mid 80s and lows will be in the low to high 40s.

Winds…

Sunday through Tuesday, each afternoon gusts will be 25-30mph.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday each afternoon gusts will be 20-25mph.

Next Saturday and next Sunday, each afternoon gusts will be 30-35mph.

NBM precip to next Sunday evening shows none for Pagosa area and up to 0.10” in our mountains. In our area this is expected Thursday and Friday afternoons. It’s from scattered showers so amounts will vary considerably. The Euro model is more optimistic with 0.37” of rain for Pagosa. Let’s go Euro! — NBM precip to next Sunday evening shows none for Pagosa area and up to 0.10” in our mountains. In our area this is expected Thursday and Friday afternoons. It’s from scattered showers so amounts will vary considerably.
*The Euro model is more optimistic with 0.37” of rain for Pagosa. Let’s go Euro!*

27 Jun to 5 Jul… The subtropical high will slowly shift towards the Four Corners. I think we’ll be dry to around 2 July and then see a slow increase of moisture and instability.

Euro ensemble precip to 5 Jul shows 0.41 ” in the Pagosa area. Precip amounts have trended up a little bounced around over the last two days. — *Euro ensemble precip to 5 Jul shows 0.41 ” in the Pagosa area. Precip amounts have bounced around over the last two days.*

This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 5 Jul. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control and mean of the 50 versions. It’s dry through most of Wednesday. Thursday and Friday there are scattered showers and thunderstorms. Then it’s dry 28 Jun until around 2 Jul. The last few days of this period there’s a chance for a few showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. — This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 5 Jul. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control and mean of the 50 versions.
It’s dry through most of Wednesday. Thursday and Friday there are scattered showers and thunderstorms. Then it’s dry 28 Jun until around 2 Jul. The last few days of this period there’s a chance for a few showers and thunderstorms each afternoon.

The next post will be Monday afternoon.

– Shawn

Pagosa Weather Blizzard Level Sponsor

Pagosa Weather Snowman Level Sponsors

Pagosa Weather Snowball Level Sponsors

Pagosa Weather Storm Sponsor

Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Support Pagosa Weather

Contact Us

Pagosa Weather Disclaimer and Release of Liability

This website makes no guarantees about nor bears any responsibility or liability concerning the accuracy or timeliness of the weather information published on this website. All weather information published on this website is for educational and weather enthusiast purposes only. We do not issue Storm Watches, Warnings or Advisories as that ability falls with the National Weather Service, who is the only institution allowed to issue such warnings by law. We are not in any way linked nor affiliated with the National Weather Service, although we do share information and relay weather watches/ warnings, etc. Use of the information on page is at your own risk/discretion, and we are not responsible for any personal/property damages, injury or death associated with weather forecasts, reports or other information as well as communication exchanged in private messages and/or person.

Terms of Use Privacy Policy

Website Design by : Brandon