Spotty shower or thunderstorm Friday – FIRE WEATHER WATCH SATURDAY…

I took this picture along Newt Jack in Turkey Springs. It clearly shows the patchwork of very dry vs drying out fast conditions. Our weather is dry, warm, and windy. FIRE DANGER IS VERY HIGH. – pic taken 6/16/2026

Thursday – 18 Jun 2026 – 4:00pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Tuesday: High: 87, Low: 39, Peak wind: 26mph, Afternoon humidity: 8-12%

Wednesday: High: *89*, Low: 42, Peak wind: 32mph, Afternoon humidity: 9-12%

* Beat previous record high of 87 set in 1986*

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
79	93 / 1954	36	22 / 1950

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Current satellite and radar…

Water vapor satellite loop 2:46pm to 3:41pm Thursday – A little blob of moisture and instability over the San Juans. Most of the action is to our south and will move our way tomorrow. — *Water vapor satellite loop 2:46pm to 3:41pm Thursday – There is a little blob of moisture and instability over the San Juans. Most of the action is to our south and will move our way tomorrow.*

Radar at 3:46pm Thursday – There are few weak showers over our mountains moving slowly towards the southeast. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are moving slowly around the high over west-central NM. — Radar at 3:46pm Thursday – There are a few weak showers over our mountains moving slowly towards the southeast. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are moving slowly around the high over west-central NM.

Forecast highlights…

*** FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY. ***

*** Breezy afternoons, mostly dry, and warm for the next 10-14 days. FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN HIGH. ***

*** I do not see the monsoon setting up for us in June. ***

Rest of Thursday… The upper-level ridge is just to our south. There is a little instability that will kick up a small shower or thunderstorm over the mountains.

Friday… The ridge will slowly move to our east and allow weak moisture and weak instability to move into our area. There will be a few isolated showers or thunderstorms mostly over the mountains. Consider yourself lucky if you get a few raindrops.

Keep an eye on out for new lightning fires.

Saturday through Wednesday morning… The ridge will set up to our southwest. Upper-level flow will be out of the west and northwest and will be stable and dry. It will remain sunny and warm with breezy afternoons.

Wednesday afternoon through the following weekend (24-28 Jun)… A little moisture and instability will kick up a few scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. Precip amounts will be low and spotty. My expectations are low.

Fire danger will remain high and lightning fires are possible.

Temps…

Thursday night lows will be near 40 to the high 40s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday highs will be in the low to high 80s and lows will be near 40 to the high 40s.

Monday through next Thursday highs will be in the mid 80s to low 90s and lows will be near 40 to the high 40s.

Winds…

Friday afternoon gusts will be around 20mph.

Saturday afternoon gusts will be 30-35mph.

Sunday through next Thursday, each afternoon gusts will be 25-30mph.

Euro precip to late 25 Jun shows 0.04” in the Pagosa area and up to 0.25” in our mountains. In our area this is expected Friday and next Thursday afternoon. Most of this period is dry. Other forecast models don’t expect any precip for us. My expectations are low. — Euro precip to late 25 Jun shows 0.04” in the Pagosa area and up to 0.25” in our mountains. In our area this is expected Friday and next Thursday afternoon. Most of this period is dry. Other forecast models don’t expect any precip for us.
**My expectations are low.**

25 Jun to 3 Jul… The subtropical high will set up to our south. The first few days of this period we will have weak moisture and weak instability that will kick up an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm each day.

I’m not too sure about the last few days of this period. Some of the models show another dry period while some models hint at weak monsoon flow.

*Euro ensemble precip to 3 Jul shows 0.38 ” in the Pagosa area. Precip amounts have trended up a little.*

This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 3 Jul. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control and mean of the 50 versions. Friday there will be a few scattered showers and thunderstorms with light precip amounts. Then it’s dry Saturday through Wednesday morning. There’s a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms 24 to 28 Jun. The forecast models are all over the place towards the end of this period. — This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 3 Jul. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control and mean of the 50 versions.
Friday there will be a few scattered showers and thunderstorms with light precip amounts. Then it’s dry Saturday through Wednesday morning. There’s a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms 24 to 28 Jun. The forecast models are all over the place towards the end of this period.

The next post will be Saturday afternoon.

– Shawn

Pagosa Weather Blizzard Level Sponsor

Pagosa Weather Snowman Level Sponsors

Pagosa Weather Snowball Level Sponsors

Pagosa Weather Storm Sponsor

Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Support Pagosa Weather

Contact Us

Pagosa Weather Disclaimer and Release of Liability

This website makes no guarantees about nor bears any responsibility or liability concerning the accuracy or timeliness of the weather information published on this website. All weather information published on this website is for educational and weather enthusiast purposes only. We do not issue Storm Watches, Warnings or Advisories as that ability falls with the National Weather Service, who is the only institution allowed to issue such warnings by law. We are not in any way linked nor affiliated with the National Weather Service, although we do share information and relay weather watches/ warnings, etc. Use of the information on page is at your own risk/discretion, and we are not responsible for any personal/property damages, injury or death associated with weather forecasts, reports or other information as well as communication exchanged in private messages and/or person.

Terms of Use Privacy Policy

Website Design by : Brandon