Dry, warm, and breezy for the next 10-14 days…

A morning shower over Pagosa Peak – pic taken 6/15/2026

Tuesday – 16 Jun 2026 – 5:30pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Sunday: High: 80, Low: 49, Peak wind: 33mph, Afternoon humidity: 21-23%

Monday: High: 80, Low: 45, Peak wind: 25mph, Afternoon humidity: 12-15%

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
78	88 / 1985	36	24 / 1970

Precipitation summary… Much of the county got some rain Sunday and Monday. There was also quite a bit of lightning and a few new fires that were quickly contained.

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reported Monday morning ranged from 0.05” to 0.37”.*

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reported Tuesday morning ranged from zero to 0.10”.*

Current satellite and radar…

Water vapor satellite Tuesday afternoon – Purple arrows indicate upper-level flow. There is weak flow out of the northwest in our area. The ridge, jagged blue line, will keep us mostly dry and warm through the middle of next week.

There is nothing on radar in our area Tuesday afternoon.

Forecast highlights…

*** RED FLAG WARNING Wednesday noon to 9pm. ***

*** Breezy afternoons, mostly dry, and warm for the next 10-14 days. FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN HIGH. ***

*** I do not see the monsoon setting up for us in June. ***

Rest of Tuesday through Thursday… A ridge will build to our west. Upper-level flow out of the northwest will be stable, dry, and warm.

Friday… Weak moisture and weak instability will lead to an isolated shower or thunderstorm mostly over the mountains. Consider yourself lucky if you get a few raindrops.

Saturday through the middle of next week… The ridge will set up to our southwest. Upper-level flow will be out of the west and northwest and will be stable and dry. It will remain sunny and warm with breezy afternoons.

Temps…

Tuesday night lows will be near 40 to the high 40s.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday highs will be in the mid 80s to the low 90s and lows will be near 40 to the high 40s.

Saturday highs will be in the low to high 80s and lows will be near 40 to the high 40s.

Sunday through the middle of next week highs will be in the mid 80s to the low 90s and lows will be in the low to high 40s.

Winds…

Wednesday afternoon gusts will be around 25mph.

Thursday and Friday afternoon gusts will be around 20mph.

Saturday afternoon gusts will be 30-35mph.

Sunday afternoon gusts will be around 30mph.

Monday through the middle of next week, each afternoon gusts will be 20-25mph.

*NBM precip to 27 Jun shows nothing for western Colorado. Other forecast models show scattered light precip, but I don’t see much to support that.*

23 Jun to 1 Jul… The subtropical high will try to set up to our south. Starting around the 26^th or 27^th we will have weak moisture and weak instability that will kick up an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm each day, but I expect most of us to stay dry and warm.

*Euro ensemble precip to 1 Jul shows 0.24 ” in the Pagosa area. Precip amounts have trended down.*

This is Euro AI ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 1 Jul. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control and mean of the 50 versions. There are a couple of slim chances for a few raindrops. The weather pattern will remain warm and mostly dry. — This is Euro AI ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 1 Jul. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control and mean of the 50 versions.
*There are a couple of slim chances for a few raindrops. The weather pattern will remain warm and mostly dry.*

The next post will be Thursday afternoon.

– Shawn

Pagosa Weather Blizzard Level Sponsor

Pagosa Weather Snowman Level Sponsors

Pagosa Weather Snowball Level Sponsors

Pagosa Weather Storm Sponsor

Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Support Pagosa Weather

Contact Us

Pagosa Weather Disclaimer and Release of Liability

This website makes no guarantees about nor bears any responsibility or liability concerning the accuracy or timeliness of the weather information published on this website. All weather information published on this website is for educational and weather enthusiast purposes only. We do not issue Storm Watches, Warnings or Advisories as that ability falls with the National Weather Service, who is the only institution allowed to issue such warnings by law. We are not in any way linked nor affiliated with the National Weather Service, although we do share information and relay weather watches/ warnings, etc. Use of the information on page is at your own risk/discretion, and we are not responsible for any personal/property damages, injury or death associated with weather forecasts, reports or other information as well as communication exchanged in private messages and/or person.

Terms of Use Privacy Policy

Website Design by : Brandon