A few spotty afternoon showers Tuesday through Saturday…

It’s not even the “dog days of summer” yet! – pic taken 5/30/2026

Sunday – 31 May 2026 – 3:20pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Friday: High: 73, Low: 49, Peak wind: 43mph

Saturday: High: 66, Low: 32, Peak wind: 31mph

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
72	87 / 1956	32	20 / 1916

Precipitation summary… A few lucky spots got a few raindrops on Friday, but most of us stayed dry.

Current satellite and radar…

Water vapor satellite Sunday afternoon – Purple arrows indicate upper-level flow. Monsoon-like activity is circled in green. It will move slowly towards us over the next few days and peak on Wednesday.

There is nothing on radar in our area Sunday afternoon.

Forecast highlights…

*** San Juan National Forest fire danger is “VERY HIGH”. ***

*** Monday will be breezy and dry. ***

*** Tuesday through Saturday spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The best chance for rain is Wednesday afternoon and evening. Precip amounts will be light. ***

*** Chance for “dry lightning” next week. We’ll have to keep an eye out for new fires. ***

Forecast details…

Monday… Lots of sun, dry, a little warmer, and breezy.

Tuesday through Saturday… A “monsoon-like” pattern will try to set up.

Moisture and instability peak Wednesday afternoon and evening, so that’s our best chance for scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise, conditions are marginal with just a few spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day. Precip amounts will be light and spotty.

Good news: It won’t be as breezy.

Bad news: We could see “dry lightning” and will have to keep an eye out for new fires.

Next Sunday… Drier, more stable air will move into the area from the southwest. Afternoon winds will increase as a low spins over the Great Basin.

Temps…

Sunday night lows will be in the mid 30 to the low 40s.

Monday through next Sunday highs will be in the mid 70s to the low 80s and lows will be in the high 30s to the mid 40s.

Winds…

Monday afternoon gusts will be around 25mph.

Tuesday through Saturday, each afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph. Isolated stronger gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

Next Sunday afternoon gusts will be around 25mph.

*NBM precip to late next Saturday shows 0.12”. Precip amounts have bounced around but remained low.*

8 Jun to 15 Jun… It looks more likely that the ridge will set up to our west and cut off our moisture feed and instability. I think we will be mostly dry and warm with highs in the high 70s to high 80s.

*Euro ensemble precip to 15 Jun shows 0.48” in the Pagosa area. Precip amounts have trended down.*

This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 15 Jun. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control and mean of the 50 versions. It’s dry through most of Tuesday and then there’s a chance for a few spotty showers or thunderstorms late Tuesday afternoon and evening. The best chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms is Wednesday afternoon and evening then there’s just a slight chance through Saturday. Precip amounts are low. The rest of this period looks more and more dry. — This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 15 Jun. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control and mean of the 50 versions.
It’s dry through most of Tuesday and then there’s a chance for a few spotty showers or thunderstorms late Tuesday afternoon and evening. The best chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms is Wednesday afternoon and evening then there’s just a slight chance through Saturday. Precip amounts are low. The rest of this period looks more and more dry.

The next post will be Wednesday afternoon.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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