Dry with breezy afternoons through Monday – more active next week…

The weather is fantastic for getting outside! Love this view of the Weminuche valley. – pic taken 5/29/2026

Friday – 29 May 2026 – 5:15pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Wednesday: High: 73, Low: 37, Peak wind: 20mph

Thursday: High: 76, Low: 39, Peak wind: 26mph

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
72	88 / 1910	32	17 / 1916

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Current satellite and radar…

Water vapor satellite Friday afternoon – The low over UT will slide north along the UT/CO border. Unfortunately that’s not close enough to give us any precip. There is drier air behind the low and afternoon winds will remain gusty.

*Radar at 4:46pm Friday – That’s mostly virga just south of Archuleta County. It will move north through the evening so hopefully it will develop more and drop a little rain in our area.*

Forecast highlights…

*** San Juan National Forest fire danger is “VERY HIGH”. ***

*** Cold spots will flirt with freezing temps Saturday and Sunday mornings. ***

*** Dry with breezy afternoons through Monday. ***

*** Tuesday through next Friday spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms. ***

Forecast details…

Friday evening through Monday… Friday evening a low moving north through eastern UT could kick up a spotty mountain shower or thunderstorm.

For the rest of this period, we’ll wake up each day to nearly clear skies and then we’ll see a few more clouds each afternoon. It will remain breezy each afternoon.

Tuesday through next Friday… A “monsoon-like” pattern will try to set up. Moisture and instability will increase so we’ll see spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day.

Good news: It won’t be as breezy.

Bad news: We could see “dry lightning” and will have to keep an eye out for new fires.

Temps…

Friday night lows will be near freezing to the low 40s.

Saturday highs will be in the mid 60s to the low 70s and lows will be near 30 to the high 30s.

Sunday highs will be near 70 to the high 70s and lows will be in the mid 30 to the low 40s.

Monday through next Friday highs will be in the mid 70s to the low 80s and lows will be in the high 30s to the mid 40s.

Winds…

Friday evening gusts will be 30-35mph.

Saturday afternoon gusts will be 25-30mph.

Sunday and Monday, each afternoon gusts will be around 25mph.

Tuesday through next Friday, each afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph.

*NBM precip to late next Friday shows 0.03”. Precip amounts have trended down for this period.*

6 Jun to 13 Jun… There is a lot of uncertainty for this period. It looks more likely that the ridge will set up to our west and cut off our moisture feed and instability. I think we will be mostly dry and warm with highs in the high 70s to high 80s.

*Euro ensemble precip to 13 Jun shows 0.73” in the Pagosa area. Precip amounts have stayed fairly steady.*

This is GFS ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 13 Jun. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control and mean of the 50 versions. It’s dry through most of Tuesday and then it’s more active late Tuesday afternoon into Friday afternoon. I’m losing confidence that the pattern will remain active through the rest of the period. — This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 13 Jun. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control and mean of the 50 versions.
*It’s dry through most of Tuesday and then it’s more active late Tuesday afternoon into Friday afternoon. I’m losing confidence that the pattern will remain active through the rest of the period.*

The next post will be Sunday afternoon.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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