A few showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday afternoon…

Had an excellent backpack adventure in our San Juan Mountains! – pic taken 5/19/2026

Monday – 25 May 2026 – 4:00pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Saturday: High: 70, Low: 32, Peak wind: 32mph

Sunday: High: 76, Low: 35, Peak wind: 24mph

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
70	82 / 1984	31	19 / 1980

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Current satellite and radar…

*Water vapor satellite loop 2:15pm to 3:20pm Monday – The low over AZ is sending moisture into our area from the south.*

*Radar at 3:24pm Monday – A few light showers have moved through our mountains. Shower activity will gradually increase through Monday evening.*

Forecast highlights…

*** Scattered showers and thunderstorms late Monday afternoon into Tuesday afternoon. ***

*** Dry Wednesday through Saturday with pleasant temps. ***

*** Chance for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will slowly increase starting Sunday or next Monday. ***

Forecast details…

Monday evening into Tuesday afternoon… A low spinning over AZ is pushing moisture and instability into the Four Corners region. Hit and miss showers and thunderstorms are likely through Tuesday afternoon. Rain lottery winners could up to 0.25” of rain. The mountains above timberline could get 1-2” of snow.

Tuesday evening through Saturday… We will be between a low to the west and a ridge to the east. This would be an active pattern later in the summer, but right now there isn’t enough moisture and instability to bring us precip.

We’ll wake up each day to nearly clear skies and then clouds will increase with afternoon heating, but we’ll stay dry.

Starting Sunday or next Monday and going through next week… A “monsoon-like” pattern will gradually set up. Moisture and instability will increase a little each day leading to increasing chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Temps…

Monday night lows will be near 40 to the high 40s.

Tuesday highs will be in the low to high 60s and lows will be in the mid 30s to the low 40s.

Wednesday through next Monday highs will be near 70 to the high 70s and lows will be mid 30s to the low 40s.

Winds…

Monday and Tuesday, each afternoon gusts near a shower or thunderstorm will be 25-30mph.

Wednesday afternoon gusts will be around 20mph.

Thursday and Friday, each afternoon gusts will be 25-30mph.

Saturday, Sunday, and next Monday, each afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph.

*Euro precip to late Tuesday evening shows 0.23” near Pagosa and up to 0.40” in our mountains. This is from hit and miss showers and thunderstorms, so amounts will vary considerably.*

*Euro precip Wednesday to late next Monday evening shows 0.06”. This is from a few spotty afternoon showers Sunday and next Monday.*

2 Jun to 9 Jun… A “monsoon-like” pattern will try to set up with a little more moisture and a little more instability so we will see hit and miss afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Euro ensemble precip to 9 Jun shows 1.06” in the Pagosa area. Precip amounts have trended up slightly. — *Euro ensemble precip to 9 Jun shows 1.06” in the Pagosa area. Precip amounts have been bouncing around.*

This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 9 Jun. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control and mean of the 50 versions. Scattered showers are likely through Tuesday afternoon. Wednesday through Sunday it’s mostly dry. Starting around 2 June, the pattern will get more active with hit and miss afternoon convective showers. — This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 9 Jun. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control and mean of the 50 versions.
*Scattered showers are likely through Tuesday afternoon. Wednesday through Sunday it’s mostly dry. Starting 1 or 2 June, the pattern will get more active with scattered afternoon convective showers.*

The next post will be Wednesday afternoon.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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