Beautiful but breezy through the weekend…

See those flat clouds?  Those are fair weather cumulus clouds.  They indicate stable conditions, and in this case, beautiful weather.  – pic taken 5/27/2026

See those flat clouds?  Those are fair weather cumulus clouds.  They indicate stable conditions, and in this case, beautiful weather.  – pic taken 5/27/2026

Wednesday – 27 May 2026 – 3:30pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Monday: High: 74, Low: 42, Peak wind: 36mph

Tuesday: High: 60, Low: 40, Peak wind: 18mph

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7187 / 19513216 / 1911

Precipitation summary… We got some precip during the last 2 days.  Eastern Archuleta County did much better than the western part.

CoCoRaHS 2-day rain totals range from 0.05” to 0.39”.
CoCoRaHS 2-day rain totals range from 0.05” to 0.39”.

Current satellite and radar…

Water vapor satellite Wednesday afternoon – Yesterday’s storm is over southeast CO. Western CO has cleared out. The low over NV will move towards UT and then move north.  It will be mostly a wind-producer for us.
Water vapor satellite Wednesday afternoon – Yesterday’s storm is over southeast CO. Western CO has cleared out. The low over NV will move towards UT and then move north.  It will be mostly a wind-producer for us.

There is nothing on radar in our area Wednesday afternoon.

Forecast highlights…

*** Dry with breezy afternoons Wednesday through Monday. ***

*** Chance for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will slowly increase starting Tuesday or next Wednesday. ***

Forecast details…

Wednesday night through Monday… We will be between a low to the west and a ridge to the east. This would be an active pattern later in the summer, but right now there isn’t enough moisture and instability to bring us precip.

Thursday evening and Friday afternoon are exceptions with a slight chance for a spotty mountain shower or thunderstorm, but I think most of us will stay dry.

We’ll wake up each day to nearly clear skies and then clouds will increase with afternoon heating, but we’ll stay dry.

Starting Tuesday or next Wednesday and going through the rest of next week… A “monsoon-like” pattern will gradually set up. Moisture and instability will increase a little each day leading to increasing chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Temps…

Wednesday night lows will be in the mid 30s to the low 40s.

Thursday and Friday highs will be near 70 to the high 70s. Thursday night lows will be near 40 to the high 40s. Friday night lows will be in the mid 30s to the mid 40s.

Saturday through next Wednesday highs will be in the low to high 70s and lows will be mid 30s to the low 40s.

Winds…

Wednesday afternoon gusts will be around 20mph.

Thursday and Friday, each afternoon gusts will be 25-30mph.

Saturday, Sunday, and Monday, each afternoon gusts will be 20-25mph.

Tuesday and next Wednesday, each afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph.

Euro precip to late 3 June shows 0.14”. Most of this is expected on Tuesday and next Wednesday.
Euro precip to late 3 June shows 0.14”. Most of this is expected on Tuesday and next Wednesday.

4 Jun to 11 Jun… A “monsoon-like” pattern will try to set up with a little more moisture and a little more instability so we will see hit and miss afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Euro ensemble precip to 11 Jun shows 0.74” in the Pagosa area. Precip amounts have trended down.
Euro ensemble precip to 11 Jun shows 0.74” in the Pagosa area. Precip amounts have trended down.
This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 11 Jun. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control and mean of the 50 versions. It’s dry through most of Thursday and then there’s a chance for a spotty shower or thunderstorm into Friday afternoon. It’s dry Saturday through Monday. Starting Tuesday or next Wednesday, the pattern will get more active with hit and miss afternoon convective showers.
This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 11 Jun. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control and mean of the 50 versions.
It’s dry through most of Thursday and then there’s a chance for a spotty shower or thunderstorm into Friday afternoon. It’s dry Saturday through Monday. Starting Tuesday or next Wednesday, the pattern will get more active with hit and miss afternoon convective showers.

The next post will be Friday afternoon.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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