Gusty winds and increased fire danger Saturday, Sunday, and Monday…

One of my favorite views along upper Piedra Road. Things are drying out quick. – pic taken 5/12/2026

Wednesday – 13 May 2026 – 4:30pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Monday: High: 76, Low: 33, Peak wind: 21mph

Tuesday: High: *82*, Low: 34, Peak wind: 18mph

* Tied the record high.*

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
67	83 / 1996	29	12 / 1967

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Current satellite and radar…

Water vapor satellite Wednesday afternoon – Purple arrows indicate upper-level flow. The ridge, jagged blue line, has oved to our east. Slightly more moist southwest flow has brought in more clouds. Behind this batch of moisture is drier air.

Radar at 4:12pm Wednesday – It’s been pretty quiet over Archuleta County, but shower activity is increasing over the Four Corners region. These are mostly isolated light showers moving towards the northeast.

Forecast highlights…

*** Slight chance for a spotty shower late Wednesday afternoon and evening. ***

*** Saturday, Sunday, and Monday gusty winds and low humidity will result in increased fire danger. ***

Forecast details…

Late Wednesday afternoon and evening… There will be a few spotty showers, mostly over the mountains, until midnight.

Thursday through next Wednesday… Starting Sunday, there’s a slight chance for a spotty shower each afternoon, but I expect most of us to stay dry.

A low will move through northern UT Sunday night and then through southern WY on Monday and cause gusty winds across the region.

Temps…

Wednesday night lows will be in the mid 30s to low 40s.

Thursday, Friday, and Saturday highs will be in the low 70s to near 80 and lows will be in the mid 30s to the low 40s.

Sunday highs will be in the mid 60s to low 70s and lows will be in the low to high 30s.

Monday highs will be in the high 50s to the mid 60s and lows will be in the mid 20s to the mid 30s.

Tuesday highs will be in the mid 60s to the low 70s and lows will be in the high 20s to the high 30s.

Next Wednesday highs will be near 70 to the high 70s and lows will be near 30 to near 40.

Winds…

Thursday and Friday, each afternoon gusts will be around 25mph in the Pagosa area and 35-40mph in the high country.

Saturday afternoon gusts will be around 30mph in the Pagosa area and 40-45mph in the high country.

Sunday afternoon and evening gusts will be 35-40mph in the Pagosa area and 50-60mph in the high country.

Monday afternoon gusts will be 30-35mph in the Pagosa area and 45-55mph in the high country.

Tuesday afternoon gusts will be around 25mph in the Pagosa area and 30-40mph in the high country.

Next Wednesday afternoon gusts will be 20-25mph in the Pagosa area and 30-35mph in the high country.

NBM precip to next Wednesday evening shows none near Pagosa and up to 0.05” in our mountains. Consider yourself lucky if you get a few raindrops during the next week. — *NBM precip to next Wednesday evening shows none near Pagosa and up to 0.05” in our mountains.*
*Consider yourself lucky if you get a few raindrops during the next week.*

20 May to 28 May… Starting around 23 May, there will be a little more moisture and a little more instability so we could see a few spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

*Euro ensemble precip to 28 May shows 0.74” in the Pagosa area. Precip amounts have trended up.*

This is Euro AI ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 28 May. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control and mean of the 50 versions. This is a mess and doesn’t tell me much. — This is Euro AI ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 28 May. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control and mean of the 50 versions.
*This is a mess and doesn’t tell me much.*

The next post will be Friday afternoon.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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