Maybe a shower Wednesday, but mostly dry for the next week…

The weather rope indicates it’s breezy. Temps are pleasant and there is a bunch of blue sky. – pic taken 5/11/2026

Monday – 11 May 2026 – 2:40pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Saturday: High: 72, Low: 31, Peak wind: 44mph

Sunday: High: 73, Low: 29, Peak wind: 18mph

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
67	80 / 1996	29	15 / 1931

Precipitation summary… A couple of lucky folks got a few raindrops Saturday afternoon.

Current satellite and radar…

Water vapor satellite Monday afternoon – Purple arrows indicate upper-level flow. The ridge, jagged blue line, will give us dry weather with above average temps through Wednesday morning. Wednesday afternoon the ridge will move to our east, and the atmosphere will be less stable leading to a few spotty showers.

There is nothing on radar in our area Monday afternoon.

Forecast highlights…

*** Near record high temps on Tuesday. ***

*** Slight chance for a spotty shower late Wednesday afternoon and evening, otherwise it will be dry with pleasant temps and breezy afternoons for the next week. ***

Forecast details…

Monday night through next Monday… I expect most of this period to be dry, but there’s a slight chance for a spotty shower Wednesday, mostly over the mountains.

Temps…

Monday night lows will be in the low 30s to low 40s.

Tuesday highs will be in the high 70s to mid 80s and lows will be in the mid 30s to mid 40s. *Record high is 82 set in 1996.*

Wednesday through next Monday highs will be in the mid 70s to the low 80s and lows will be in the mid 30s to the low 40s.

Winds…

Tuesday afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph in the Pagosa area and 25-35mph in the high country.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, each afternoon gusts will be around 25mph in the Pagosa area and 35-45mph in the high country.

Saturday, Sunday, and next Monday, each afternoon gusts will be around 30mph in the Pagosa area and 40-45mph in the high country.

*NBM precip to next Monday evening shows up to 0.02” in northwest Archuleta County and none in the Wolf Creek Pass area. Consider yourself lucky if you get a few raindrops during the next week.*

18 May to 26 May… We could see spotty afternoon showers, but I expect most of us to stay dry. Temps will be pleasant and afternoons will be breezy.

*Euro ensemble precip to 26 May shows 0.57” in the Pagosa area. Precip amounts have stayed steady.*

This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 26 May. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control and mean of the 50 versions. It’s dry through into Wednesday afternoon and there’s a chance for a few spotty light showers late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Then it looks dry through next Monday. The rest of the period could get more active, but the models are all over the place, so I don’t trust them. — This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 26 May. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control and mean of the 50 versions.
It’s dry through into Wednesday afternoon and then there’s a chance for a few spotty light showers late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Then it looks dry through next Monday. The rest of the period could get more active, but the models are all over the place, so I don’t trust them.

The next post will be Wednesday afternoon.

– Shawn

Pagosa Weather Blizzard Level Sponsor

Pagosa Weather Snowman Level Sponsors

Pagosa Weather Snowball Level Sponsors

Pagosa Weather Storm Sponsor

Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Support Pagosa Weather

Contact Us

Pagosa Weather Disclaimer and Release of Liability

This website makes no guarantees about nor bears any responsibility or liability concerning the accuracy or timeliness of the weather information published on this website. All weather information published on this website is for educational and weather enthusiast purposes only. We do not issue Storm Watches, Warnings or Advisories as that ability falls with the National Weather Service, who is the only institution allowed to issue such warnings by law. We are not in any way linked nor affiliated with the National Weather Service, although we do share information and relay weather watches/ warnings, etc. Use of the information on page is at your own risk/discretion, and we are not responsible for any personal/property damages, injury or death associated with weather forecasts, reports or other information as well as communication exchanged in private messages and/or person.

Terms of Use Privacy Policy

Website Design by : Brandon