Great spring weather for a while…

Tommy high above Williams Creek Reservoir on a beautiful spring day – pic taken 5/8/2026

Saturday – 9 May 2026 – 3:15pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Thursday: High: 65, Low: 21, Peak wind: 18mph

Friday: High: 72, Low: 32, Peak wind: 23mph

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
66	82 / 1989	28	15 / 1966

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Current satellite and radar…

*Water vapor satellite loop 1:50pm to 2:45pm Saturday – The trough over central UT will move through our area tonight and kick up a few spotty showers.*

*Radar at 2:54pm Saturday – A few spotty light showers over Archuleta County are moving towards the east-southeast.*

Forecast highlights…

*** Sunday through next weekend it will be mostly dry with pleasant temps and breezy afternoons. ***

Forecast details…

Rest of Saturday… A weak trough will move through tonight. There’s a slight chance for a spotty shower, but most of us will stay dry.

Sunday through next weekend… I expect most of this period to be dry, but there’s a slight chance for a spotty shower Wednesday and Thursday, mostly over the mountains.

Temps…

Saturday night lows will be in the low to high 30s.

Sunday highs will be in the low to high 70s and low will be near 30 to near 40.

Monday highs will be in the mid 70s to the low 80s and lows will be in mid 30s to low 40s.

Tuesday highs will be in the high 70s to mid 80s and lows will be in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Wednesday through next weekend highs will be in the mid 70s to the low 80s and lows will be in the mid 30s to the low 40s.

Winds…

Sunday through Wednesday, each afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph in the Pagosa area and 25-35mph in the high country.

Thursday through next weekend, each afternoon gusts will be 20-25mph in the Pagosa area and 35-45mph in the high country.

NBM precip to next Wednesday evening shows up to 0.05” in the Pagosa area and up to 0.10” in our mountains. This is from very spotty light showers. I expect most of us to stay dry through this period.

16 May to 24 May… We’ll be mostly dry with pleasant temps and breezy afternoons.

*Euro ensemble precip to 24 May shows 0.42” in the Pagosa area. Precip amounts have stayed steady.*

This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 24 May. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control and mean of the 50 versions. Today there’s a slight chance for a spotty light shower or two. It’s dry through Wednesday morning and there’s a chance for a few spotty light showers Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. Then it looks dry through 18 May. The rest of the period could get more active, but the models are all over the place, so I don’t trust them. — This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 24 May. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control and mean of the 50 versions.
Today there’s a slight chance for a spotty light shower or two. It’s dry through Wednesday morning and there’s a chance for a few spotty light showers Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. Then it looks dry through 18 May. The rest of the period could get more active, but the models are all over the place, so I don’t trust them.

The next post will be Monday afternoon.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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