Mostly dry with pleasant temps and breezy afternoons…

Fresh snow on the mountains as storm clouds slowly cleared – pic taken 5/6/2026

Thursday – 7 May 2026 – 6:45pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Tuesday: High: 58, Low: 36, Peak wind: 29mph

Wednesday: High: 52, Low: 28, Peak wind: 17mph

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
66	84 / 1947	28	13 / 1975

Precipitation summary… I estimate that the Wolf Creek Pass area got 10-12” of snow from the recent storm.

*CoCoRaHS 2-day precip reports ranged from 0.04” to 0.30”.*

Current satellite and radar…

*Water vapor satellite Thursday evening – Purple arrows indicate upper-level flow. The ridge, jagged blue line off the coast, will be the main influence on our weather for the next 7-10 days.*

There is nothing on radar in our area Thursday afternoon.

Forecast highlights…

*** Friday through next Thursday will be mostly dry with pleasant temps and breezy afternoons. ***

Forecast details…

Thursday night through next Thursday… I expect most of this period to be dry, but there’s a slight chance for a spotty shower over the weekend and again Wednesday and next Thursday, mostly over the mountains.

Temps…

Thursday night low will be in the high 20s to the mid 30s.

Friday and Saturday highs will be in the high 60s to the mid 70s and lows will be in the low to high 30s.

Sunday highs will be in the low to high 70s and low will be near 30 to near 40.

Monday highs will be in the mid 70s to the low 80s and lows will be in mid 30s to low 40s.

Tuesday highs will be in the high 70s to mid 80s and lows will be in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Wednesday and next Thursday highs will be in the mid 70s to the low 80s and lows will be in the mid 30s to the low 40s.

Winds…

Friday afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph in the Pagosa area and 25-35mph in the high country.

Saturday afternoon gusts will be 25-30mph in the Pagosa area and 35-45mph in the high country.

Sunday through next Thursday, each afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph in the Pagosa area and 25-35mph in the high country.

*NBM precip to Wednesday at noon shows 0.02” in the Pagosa area and up to 0.20” in our mountains. This is from very spotty light showers. I expect most of us to stay dry through this period.*

14 May to 22 May… We’ll be mostly dry with pleasant temps and breezy afternoons.

*Euro ensemble precip to 22 May shows 0.42” in the Pagosa area. Precip amounts are trending down.*

This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 22 May. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control and mean of the 50 versions. It’s dry on Friday. Over the weekend there’s a slight chance for a spotty light shower or two. It’s dry through Wednesday morning and there’s a chance for a few spotty light showers Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. The rest of the period could get more active, but the models are all over the place, so I don’t trust them. — This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 22 May. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control and mean of the 50 versions.
It’s dry on Friday and then over the weekend there’s a slight chance for a spotty light shower or two. It’s dry Sunday night through Wednesday morning and then there’s a chance for a few spotty light showers Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. The rest of the period could get more active, but the models are all over the place, so I don’t trust them.

The next post will be Saturday afternoon.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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