Backcountry skiers headed out to play in the new snow on Wolf Creek Pass – pic taken 4/27/2026
Wednesday – 29 Apr 2026 – 7:30pm
The past…
Stevens Field Observations
Monday: High: 53, Low: 34, Peak wind: 21mph
Tuesday: High: 55, Low: 25, Peak wind: 29mph
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 61 | 79 / 1981 | 27 | 10 / 1996 |
Precipitation summary… There was no measurable precip reported this morning.
Current satellite and radar…
Forecast highlights…
*** A few spotty showers Thursday afternoon into Friday morning and then an increase in showers Friday afternoon into Friday evening. ***
*** Expect WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS in the mountains Thursday night into Friday night. ***
*** Spotty showers are possible Saturday through next Wednesday but precip amounts will be light. ***
Forecast details…
Rest of today through Thursday morning… A transient ridge will move through with drier, more stable air. Clouds will gradually increase.
Late Thursday afternoon into Friday night… The next low-pressure system looks less favorable for us but we’ll get some precip.
Timing… Spotty showers will develop Thursday afternoon and Thursday night mostly over the mountains. The ingredients line up best Friday afternoon into Friday evening for an increase in shower activity and a few thunderstorms.
Snow levels will mostly be 8,500ft to 9,000ft but early Friday morning into mid Friday morning, the snow level could drop to around 7,600ft.
Forecast precip amounts…
Mountains above 9,000ft: 4-8” of snow
Pagosa Springs area: 0.20” to 0.40” of rain. Locations above 7,600ft could see a few snowflakes mixed with the rain Friday morning.
Saturday and Sunday… A weak ridge will be in the area. There’s a little moisture and a little instability, so there’s a chance for a spotty afternoon shower or thunderstorm, mostly over the mountains.
Monday through next Wednesday… A slow moving low-pressure system will move through AZ and NM. Moisture and instability will increase so we’ll see a few scattered showers and a thunderstorm or two. Precip amounts will be light and spotty.
Snow levels will bounce around between 9,500ft and 10,500ft.
Rough guess precip forecast…
Mountains above 10,000ft: 3-6”
Pagos Springs area: 0.10” to 0.25”
*** Timing and precip amounts are still uncertain. I’ll make adjustments as the data gets better. ***
Temps…
Wednesday night lows will be in the mid 20s to the mid 30s.
Thursday highs will be in the mid-50s to the low 60s and lows will be in the low to high 30s.
Friday highs will be near 50 to the high 50s and lows will be in the mid 20s to the mid 30s.
Saturday highs will be in the mid 50s to the low 60s and lows will be in the mid 20s to the low 30s.
Sunday and Monday highs will be near 60 to the high 60s and lows will be in the high 20s to the mid 30s.
Tuesday and next Wednesday highs will be in the mid 50s to the mid 60s and lows will be in the mid 20s to the mid 30s.
Winds…
Thursday afternoon winds will gust to around 20mph in the Pagosa area and 25-30mph in the high country.
Friday and Saturday each afternoon winds will peak 10-15mph in the Pagosa area and 20-25mph in the high country.
Sunday afternoon gusts will be around 15mph in the Pagosa area and around 25mph in the high country,
Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, each afternoon gusts will be around 20mph in the Pagosa area and 25-35mph in the high country.
The forecast models have a wide array of outcomes so I don’t trust them.
6 May to 14 May… This period is trying to dry out but the models can’t make up their minds.
Precip amounts have trended down.
It’s dry through Thursday morning. Spotty light showers are possible Thursday afternoon through Friday morning and then showers increase Friday afternoon into Friday night. Then it stays active into the middle of next week with scattered light showers. The rest of the period is trying to dry out but there is a lot uncertainty.
The next post will be Friday afternoon.
– Shawn
