More valley rain and mountain snow Thursday and Friday…

Snow-covered Pagosa Peak made a brief appearance late yesterday afternoon  – pic taken 4/26/2026

Snow-covered Pagosa Peak made a brief appearance late yesterday afternoon  – pic taken 4/26/2026

Monday – 27 Apr 2026 – 8:10am

Stevens Field Observations

Saturday: High: 60, Low: 21, Peak wind: 26mph

Sunday: High: 49, Low: 38, Peak wind: 35mph

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6176 / 19542611 / 1951

Precipitation summary… The Upper San Juan snotel got 1.6” liquid equivalent and the Wolf Creek Summit snotel got 2”. I estimate that the Wolf Creek Pass area got 14”-17” of snow.

CoCoRaHS 2-day precip totals range from 0.26” to 0.84”.
CoCoRaHS 2-day precip totals range from 0.26” to 0.84”.

Current satellite and radar…

Low level water vapor satellite loop 6:30am to 7:30am Monday – Low clouds are “stuck” over the mountains. The trough over central NV will move through our area tonight and kick up a few showers, mostly over the mountains.
Low level water vapor satellite loop 6:30am to 7:30am Monday – Low clouds are “stuck” over the mountains. The trough over central NV will move through our area tonight and kick up a few showers, mostly over the mountains.

There is nothing on radar in our area Monday morning.

Forecast highlights…

*** A few spotty showers are possible into Monday evening, especially over the mountains. ***

*** Hard freeze possible Monday and Tuesday nights. ***

*** Breezy each afternoon through Wednesday. ***

*** Another round of valley rain and mountain snow Thursday and Friday. ***

Forecast details…

Today… A little precip could be wrung out of these clouds this afternoon and into the evening as a weak trough moves through. A spotty shower or two is possible, mostly over the mountains. The mountains could get 1-2” of snow, but it will be spotty.

Tuesday through early Thursday morning… A transient ridge will move through with drier, more stable air. Tuesday we’ll have mostly sunny skies and then clouds will increase Wednesday ahead of the next storm.

Late Thursday morning into Friday night… The next low-pressure system will move through the region and kick up another round of scattered showers. The best chance for precip is late Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon.

Snow levels will mostly be 9,000ft to 9,500ft.

Forecast precip amounts…

Mountains above 9,000ft: 5-10” of snow

Pagosa Springs area: 0.20” to 0.40” of rain

*** I’ll continue to make adjustments as the data gets better. ***

Saturday, Sunday, and next Monday… A weak ridge will be in the area. There’s a little moisture and a little instability, so there’s a chance for a spotty afternoon shower or thunderstorm, mostly over the mountains.

Temps…

Monday highs will be near 50 to the high 50s and *** lows will be in the low to high 20s. ***

Tuesday highs will be in the mid-50s to the low 60s and *** lows will be in the low to high 20s. ***

Wednesday highs will be in the high 50s to the mid 60s and lows will be in the mid 20s to the mid 30s.

Thursday highs will be in the mid-50s to the low 60s and lows will be in the low to high 30s.

Friday highs will be near 50 to the high 50s and lows will be in the high 20s to the mid 30s.

Saturday, Sunday, and next Monday highs will be in the high 50s to the mid 60s and lows will be in the high 20s to the mid 30s.

Winds…

Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday each afternoon gusts will be 20-25mph in the Pagosa area and 30-40mph in the high country.

Thursday through next Monday, each afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph in the Pagosa area and 20-30mph in the high country.

WPC rain to late Friday evening shows 0.60” near Pagosa and up 1.20” in the Wolf Creek Pass area.
WPC rain to late Friday evening shows 0.60” near Pagosa and up 1.20” in the Wolf Creek Pass area.
NBM snow to late Friday evening shows a few snowflakes above 8,000ft in the Pagosa area and 8” near Wolf Creek Pass.
NBM snow to late Friday evening shows a few snowflakes above 8,000ft in the Pagosa area and 8” near Wolf Creek Pass.

4 May to 11 May… This period is trying to remain active. A storm is trying to take shape around 6 and 7 May. Let’s hope that it gets its act together.

Euro ensemble precip to 11 May shows 1.33” in the Pagosa area. Precip amounts have trended up.
Euro ensemble precip to 11 May shows 1.33” in the Pagosa area.
This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 11 May. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control and mean of the 50 versions. We could get a few scattered showers today and then it’s dry Monday night into Thursday morning. There’s potential for another storm Thursday afternoon into early Saturday morning. The rest of the period is trying to stay active with a storm trying to take shape around 6 and 7 May.
This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 11 May. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control and mean of the 50 versions.
We could get a few scattered showers today and then it’s dry Monday night into Thursday morning. There’s potential for another storm Thursday afternoon into early Saturday morning. The rest of the period is trying to stay active with a storm trying to take shape around 6 and 7 May.

The next post will be Wednesday evening.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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