Geese at the lake on a beautiful spring morning – pic taken 4/21/2026
Friday – 1 May 2026 – 3:45pm
The past…
Stevens Field Observations
Wednesday: High: 61, Low: 28, Peak wind: 31mph
Thursday: High: 59, Low: 29, Peak wind: 28mph
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 61 | 79 / 1981 | 27 | 10 / 1996 |
Precipitation summary… There has been no measurable precip reported recently.
Current satellite and radar…
Forecast highlights…
*** Scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two Friday afternoon into Friday evening. ***
*** Expect WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS in the mountains Friday afternoon into Friday night. ***
*** HARD FREEZE in the Pagosa area Friday night. ***
*** Spotty showers are possible each afternoon Saturday through Monday, but precip amounts will be light. ***
*** A weak storm is possible Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. ***
Forecast details…
Friday afternoon into Friday night… The trough will move through our area this evening.
The ingredients line up best for an increase in shower activity and a few thunderstorms Friday afternoon into Friday evening.
Snow levels will mostly be 8,500ft to 9,000ft. A thunderstorm or strong shower could bring a few snowflakes down to 8,000ft but there won’t be any accumulation.
Forecast precip amounts…
Mountains above 9,000ft: 2-4” of snow
Pagosa Springs area: a few raindrops to 0.20”
Saturday through Tuesday morning… A weak ridge will be in the area through Monday morning, and then upper-level southwest flow will gradually increase ahead of the next storm.
There’s a little moisture and a little instability, so there’s a chance for a spotty afternoon shower or thunderstorm, mostly over the mountains.
Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday evening… A slow moving low-pressure system will move through AZ and NM. Moisture and instability will increase so we’ll see a few scattered showers and a thunderstorm or two. Precip amounts will be light and spotty.
Snow levels on Tuesday will be above 9,000ft and then drop to around 8,000ft Tuesday night. By Wednesday afternoon snow levels will climb back up to 9,000ft.
Precip forecast…
Mountains above 9,000ft: 3-6”
Pagos Springs area: 0.05” to 0.20”
*** Forecast confidence is still low. I’ll make adjustments as the data gets better. ***
Temps…
Friday night lows will be in the low to high 20s.
Saturday highs will be in the mid 50s to the low 60s and lows will be in the mid 20s to the low 30s.
Sunday and Monday highs will be near 60 to the high 60s and lows will be in the high 20s to the mid 30s.
Tuesday and Wednesday highs will be in the mid 50s to the mid 60s and lows will be in the mid 20s to the mid 30s.
Thursday highs will be near 60 to the high 60s and lows will be in the high 20s to the mid 30s.
Next Friday highs will be in the mid 60s to the low 70s and lows will be near 30 to near 40.
Winds…
Friday and Saturday each afternoon winds will peak 10-15mph in the Pagosa area. Isolated gusts to 30mph are possible near showers and thunderstorms on Friday.
Sunday afternoon gusts will be around 15mph in the Pagosa area and around 25mph in the high country,
Monday afternoon gusts will be 25-30mph in the Pagosa area and 40-45mph in the high country.
Tuesday afternoon gusts will be 20-25mph in the Pagosa area and 30-40mph in the high country.
Wednesday, Thursday, and next Friday, each afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph in the Pagosa area and 25-35mph in the high country.
The forecast models are all over the place so forecast confidence is low.
8 May to 15 May… The forecast models are starting to agree that the weather pattern will dry out for us.
Precip amounts have trended up a little.
After scattered showers Friday afternoon into Friday night, there’s weak chance for spotty light showers Saturday, Sunday, and Monday afternoons. A weak storm is possible Tuesday and Wednesday. The rest of the period is trying to dry out.
The next post will be Sunday afternoon. This weekend I’ll finish the April summary and May outlook. Spoiler… We had above average precip in April!
– Shawn
