A beautiful rainbow from a fast-moving shower Saturday afternoon – pic taken 4/11/2026
Monday – 13 Apr 2026 – 5:00pm
The past…
Stevens Field Observations
Saturday: High: 58, Low: 34, Peak wind: 31mph
Sunday: High: 60, Low: 28, Peak wind: 37mph
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 58 | 74 / 1988 | 23 | 8 / 1980 |
Precipitation summary… On Saturday a pretty strong band of showers hit eastern Archuleta County.
Current satellite and radar…
Forecast highlights…
*** Round 2 of precip Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon. ***
*** Expect winter driving conditions on Wolf Creek Pass Monday night into Tuesday afternoon. ***
*** Hard freeze possible Monday and Thursday nights, and then very likely Tuesday, Wednesday, Friday, and Saturday nights. ***
Forecast details…
Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon… System 2 will move through. This one will have better storm energy and moisture, so we’ll get more precip.
Timing… Scattered showers are increasing over the mountains as I type and then in the Pagosa area they’ll increase Monday evening. The best chance for precip is late Monday evening through Tuesday morning. Hit and miss showers will gradually end by late Tuesday afternoon.
Snow levels…
Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning: around 9,000ft
Sunrise to sunset Tuesday: 7,400ft to 8,000ft
Precip amounts:
Mountains above 9,000ft: 6-10”
Pagosa area above 8,000ft: up to 1” of snow and 0.25” to 0.50” of rain
Pagosa area below 8,000ft: a dusting of snow and 0.25” to 0.50” of rain
Tuesday night into Friday morning… A transient ridge with drier air will give us mostly sunny skies and temps slightly above average.
Late Friday morning into Friday afternoon… A fast moving low pressure system will skirt through northern CO. There is enough moisture and instability to kick up a few scattered showers and thunderstorms in the middle of the day. Most of the storms will be along The Divide. Precip amounts will be low.
Friday evening through Sunday… A transient ridge will bring us partly cloudy skies and dry weather.
Next Monday… There will be an increase of moisture and instability leading to a few scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Precip amounts will be light.
Temps…
Monday night lows will be in the high 20s to the mid 30s.
Tuesday highs will be in the mid 40s to the low 50s and lows will be in the mid teens to the mid 20s.
Wednesday highs will be in the low 50s to high 50s and lows will be in the lows will be near 20 to the high 20s.
Thursday highs will be in the mid 50s to the mid 60s and lows will be in the mid 20s to the mid 30s.
Friday highs will be in the mid 40s to the low 40s and lows will be in the low teens to the low 20s.
Saturday highs will be in the high 40 to the mid 50s and lows will be in the high teens to the mid 20s.
Sunday and next Monday highs will be near 60 to the mid 60s and lows will be in the mid 20s to the low 30s.
Winds…
Tuesday and Wednesday, each afternoon gusts will be 20-25mph in the Pagosa Springs area and 30-40mph in the high country.
Thursday afternoon gusts will be around 30mph in the Pagosa Springs area and 35-45mph in the high country.
*** Friday afternoon gusts will be 30-40mph in the Pagosa Springs area and 40-50mph in the high country. ***
Saturday and Sunday, each afternoon gusts will be around 20mph in the Pagosa Springs area and 30-35mph in the high country.
Next Monday afternoon gusts will be around 25mph in the Pagosa area and 35-40mph in the high country.
20 Apr to 28 Apr… It starts off dry and then things are uncertain the rest of the period. Other forecast products look a little more encouraging.
Round 2 is Monday evening into Tuesday afternoon. Then it’s dry into Friday morning. Friday during the middle of the day scattered showers are possible. Then it’s dry Saturday through Monday morning. There is a lot of uncertainty for the rest of the period but other forecast products look a little more encouraging.
The next post will be on Wednesday afternoon.
– Shawn
