Temps 20-25 degrees above average through Friday …

Tommy had a fun day hiking to Big Meadows and Shaw Reservoirs – pic on 3/23/2026

Monday – 23 Mar 2026 – 6:45pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Saturday: High: 77*, Low: 29, Peak wind: 29mph

Sunday: High: 74*, Low: 32, Peak wind: 16mph

* New record highs. That’s five days in a row! *

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
51	73 / 1940	19	-5 / 1952

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Current satellite and radar…

Water vapor satellite late Monday afternoon – Purple arrows indicate upper-level flow. The “hell high” has temporarily weakened and moved off the CA coast. The “dirty ridge” pushed a lot of mid and high clouds through our today. — Water vapor satellite late Monday afternoon – Purple arrows indicate upper-level flow. The “hell high” has temporarily weakened and moved off the CA coast. The “dirty ridge” pushed a lot of mid and high clouds through our area today.

There is nothing on radar in our area Monday afternoon.

Forecast highlights…

*** Near record high temps through Friday. Be careful with fire! **

*** More active weather pattern starting Sunday or Monday. ***

Forecast details…

Tuesday through Saturday… The “hell high” will rebound and move east through the week.

Temps will remain 20-25 degrees above average through Friday. Saturday a few more clouds will move through, and high temps will be 5 degrees cooler.

Sunday and next Monday… Finally the pattern will flip… the ridge will be to our east and the trough the will be to our west. This means a more active pattern for us!

The first wave of energy and moisture could move through Sunday night, but there is still quite a bit uncertainty. It isn’t impressive so precip amounts will be low.

Temps…

Monday night lows will be in the high 20s to the high 30s.

Tuesday highs will be in the low 70s to near 80 and lows will be in low 30s to near 40.

Wednesday highs will be in the mid 70s to mid 80s and lows will be in the low 30s to low 40s.

Thursday and Friday highs will be in the low 70s to near 80 and lows will be in near 30 to near 40.

Saturday and Sunday highs will be in the mid 60s to low 70s and lows will be in the high 20s to high 30s.

Next Monday highs will be in the low to high 60s and lows will be near 30 to the high 30s.…

Winds…

Tuesday and Wednesday, each afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph in the Pagosa Springs area and around 30-35mph in the high country.

Thursday and Friday, each afternoon gusts will be 20-25mph in the Pagosa Springs area and 35-40mph in the high country.

Saturday, Sunday, and next Monday, each afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph in the Pagosa Springs area and 30-35mph in the high country.

*NBM precip to next Monday evening shows 0.06” in the Pagosa Springs area.*

31 Mar to 7 Apr… The ridge will weaken and move to our east and a trough will set up near the west coast. The storm track will be closer to our area and we’ll see a more active weather pattern.

*Euro ensemble precip to 7 Apr shows 1.18” in the Pagosa area. Precip amounts are bouncing around a bit.*

This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area through 7 Apr. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control and mean of the 50 versions. This model expects it to stay dry through Saturday and then a more active and wet pattern for the rest of the period. Other forecast models differ in the details but show a similar trend. — This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area through 7 Apr. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control and mean of the 50 versions.
*This model expects it to stay dry through Saturday and then a more active and wet pattern for the rest of the period. Other forecast models differ in the details but show a similar trend.*

*Euro ensemble total snow for Wolf Creek to 7 Apr shows 9.1”. It’s dry through Saturday, and then the weather pattern will get more active. Snow amounts have trended down a little.*

The next post will be on Wednesday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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