Yep, it’s been a sad winter. But just 3 years ago we got 150% of our average snow! It WILL happen again! – picture on the left was taken this week and picture on the right was taken in the same spot 3 years ago (2023).
Wednesday – 25 Mar 2026 – 6:15pm
The past…
Stevens Field Observations
Monday: High: 67, Low: 29, Peak wind: 21mph
Tuesday: High: 73*, Low: 30, Peak wind: 20mph
* New record high. *
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 51 | 73 / 1940 | 18 | -3 / 1929 |
Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.
Current satellite and radar…
There is nothing on radar in our area Wednesday afternoon.
Forecast highlights…
*** A slight chance for a spotty shower Friday afternoon, otherwise it will be dry through Sunday. **
*** Good chance for valley rain and mountain snow Tuesday night into early Thursday morning. ***
Forecast details…
Thursday through Sunday… The “hell high” will rebound and move east through the weekend.
Temps will remain 20 degrees above average Thursday.
On Friday there is a little surge of moisture and instability so a few spotty showers could pop up in the afternoon over the mountains. That will also knock our afternoon high temps down about 5 degrees.
Saturday and Sunday we’ll see more clouds, but it should stay dry. Temps will still be around 15 degrees above average.
Monday through next Thursday… Finally the pattern will flip… the ridge will be to our east and the trough the will be to our west. This means a more active pattern for us!
The first wave of energy and moisture could move through Monday afternoon and kick up scattered showers. Precip amounts will be light.
Our best chance for valley rain and mountain snow is Tuesday night into early Thursday morning ahead of the main trough. Scattered showers could persist through Thursday morning and then it will clear out Thursday afternoon.
Snow levels…
Monday afternoon around 11,000ft
Tuesday morning around 10,000ft
Wednesday morning around 9,000ft
Wednesday night through Thursday morning 8,500ft to 9,000ft
*** The details are uncertain, so I’ll continue to make adjustments as the data gets better. ***
Temps…
Wednesday night lows will be in the low 30s to low 40s.
Thursday highs will be in the low 70s to near 80 and lows will be in near 30 to near 40.
Friday, Saturday, and Sunday highs will be in the mid 60s to low 70s and lows will be in the high 20s to high 30s.
Monday and Tuesday highs will be in the low to high 60s and lows will be near 30 to the high 30s.
Next Wednesday highs will be in the high 40s to the low 50s and lows will be in the mid 20s to the low 30s.
Next Thursday highs will be in the low to high 50s and lows will be in the mid 20s to the low 30s.
Winds…
Thursday and Friday, each afternoon gusts will be 20-25mph in the Pagosa Springs area and 35-40mph in the high country.
Saturday, Sunday, and Monday, each afternoon gusts will be around 20mph in the Pagosa Springs area and 30-35mph in the high country.
Tuesday, next Wednesday, and next Thursday, each afternoon gusts will be around 25mph in the Pagosa Springs area and 35-40mph in the high country.
The forecast models are all over the place with precip, so I don’t trust them.
The forecast models are all over the place with precip, so I don’t trust them.
1 Apr to 9 Apr… After the Tuesday through next Thursday storm, the weather pattern can’t make up its mind. It’s disorganized with limited storm energy and moisture. I just see chances for light precip.
This model expects it to stay dry through Friday morning, and then it shows a weak chance for light precip Friday afternoon, and then there’s another dry period Sunday through Monday morning. There’s a chance for light precip Monday evening through Tuesday evening and then our best chance for precip is Tuesday night into next Thursday evening. Then the weather pattern is disorganized through the rest of the period.
The next post will be on Friday.
– Shawn
