Spectacular sunrise this morning. (click on title of post to see image)
Tuesday – 17 Mar 2026 – 8:00pm
The past…
Stevens Field Observations
Sunday: High: High: 55, Low: 39, Peak wind: 37mph
Monday: High: 58, Low: 25, Peak wind: 23mph
Tuesday: High: 65, Low: 26, Peak wind: 20mph
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 51 | 67 / 1995 | 16 | -12 / 1917 |
Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.
Current satellite and radar…
Satellite: The ugly ridge is firmly in place to our west. Warm dry air is feeding into it, which will build it over the next few days. Right now, it is a dirty ridge with high level clouds spilling over making for pretty sunrises/ sunsets. However, as it build and shifts east that moisture will be cut off and we”ll see clear skies along with very warm temps.
Looking way upstream, minor troughs are impacting the ridge to the west. By Sunday, those troughs will beat the ridge down, flattening it. This will give us coolers temps and those mid level and high level clouds for pretty sunrises and sunsets. Unfortunately, no precipitation.
Radar: There is nothing on radar in our area Tuesday afternoon. The only upstream precipitation is way up in Washington into Upper Idaho.
Forecast highlights…
*** T-shirt Weather – record high temps this week. ***
Forecast details…
Wednesday through Saturday (21 Mar)… The “hell high” will build over the southwest US. It will park over southern AZ through Saturday. The storm track will be well to our north.
We’ll have mostly Clear skies and remain dry.
Temps: Temps will be 25 degrees above average Wednesday through next Saturday. Record high temps are likely. Record high for Wednesday is 68, Thursday is 67, Friday is 68, and Saturday record high is 69.
*** Note: Our record high for the month of March is 73 set on 19 Mar 1907, 23 Mar 1940, and 25 Mar 1940. ***
Temps will increase a few degrees each day… Low 70s to mid 70s by Friday. The mountains could see highs in the mid-50s, while Arboles could be in the low 80s.
Lows will be in the low 20s to the low 30s.
Winds: Tuesday through Saturday, each afternoon gusts will be 10-15mph in the Pagosa Springs area and around 25mph in the high country.
Sunday through Tuesday (22 to 24 Mar)… The “hell high” will weaken and move slowly east. We’ll have a more typical dry, southwest flow for this time of year. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with mid and high level clouds making for pretty sunrises and sunsets.
Temps: High temps will be around 10 degrees cooler, but that’s still 15 degrees above average!
Highs will be in the mid 60s to low 70s and lows will be in the mid 20s to mid 30s.
Wind: Sunday through next Tuesday, each afternoon gusts will be around 20mph in the Pagosa Springs area and 30-35mph in the high country.
22 Mar to 30 Mar… Starting around 25 Mar, the ridge will flatten and might allow some moisture to move into our area. I still don’t see any good soakings on the horizon, but any moisture is better than none!
Long Range
Interestingly, both medium range model runs are indicating a strong front moving through the area on the 31st and a steep drop in temperatures. It is too early for details beyond that but we will monitor.
The next post will be on Thursday.
– Arleen
