Standing lenticular clouds indicate strong winds over our mountains and are a sign of severe turbulence for pilots. – Pic taken 2/28/2026
Sunday – 1 Mar 2026 – 3:45pm
The past…
Stevens Field Observations
Friday: High: 59, Low: 23, Peak wind: 10mph
Saturday: High: 61, Low: 24, Peak wind: 16mph
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 45 | 63 / 1943 | 12 | -25 / 1913 |
Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.
Current satellite and radar…
There is nothing on radar in our area Sunday afternoon.
Forecast highlights…
*** Next week we’ll see a more active pattern, but it’s wimpy for us. ***
Forecast details…
Rest of Sunday through Monday afternoon… A ridge over the southwest US will keep the storm track to our north. Occasional patches of clouds will move through our area, but we’ll stay dry.
Monday the ridge will weaken and move to our east. We’ll see more clouds ahead of an approaching trough.
Monday evening into Tuesday night… A weak trough with limited moisture will move through northern Colorado. We’ll have more clouds and maybe a few spotty showers along The Divide.
I expect very little precip in our area. Wolf Creek will be lucky to get an inch of snow.
Wednesday through Thursday evening… A transient ridge will move through. We’ll have scattered clouds and remain dry.
Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon… Another trough and a cold front will move through from the northwest with limited moisture. We’ll see more clouds and a few spotty showers, but precip amounts will be low.
The snow level could drop down to 7,500ft but just a dusting of snow is possible in the Pagosa area. Wolf Creek could get 1-3” of snow. My confidence in this system is decreasing.
Next Sunday… A ridge will build over our area while a cut-off low spins over the Baja Peninsula. We’ll have partly cloudy skies and will be dry.
Temps…
Sunday night lows will be in the mid 20s to low 30s.
Monday highs will be in the mid 50s to low 60s and lows will be in the low to high 20s.
Tuesday through Thursday highs will be near 50 to the high 50s and lows will be in the high teens to the high 20s.
Friday highs will be in the mid 40s to the low 50s and lows will be in the high teens to the mid 20s.
Saturday highs will be in near 50 to the high 50s and lows will be near 20 to the high 20s.
Winds…
Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, each afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph near Pagosa and 30-35mph in the high country.
Thursday afternoon gusts will be around 25mph near Pagosa and 40-45mph in the high country.
Friday, Saturday, and next Sunday, each afternoon gusts will be around 15mph near Pagosa and 30-35mph in the high country.
The northern Colorado mountains will be favored.
8 Mar to 16 Mar… The big evil ridge will be a little farther off the west coast. The jet stream will push systems through our area from the northwest. These systems usually lack moisture, and the trajectory isn’t favorable for us. We’ll see periods of scattered showers, but I don’t see any big storms on the horizon.
The next post will be on Tuesday.
– Shawn
