Great weather and good snow up at Wolf Creek! – Pic taken 2/23/2026
Wednesday – 25 Feb 2026 – 1:10pm
The past…
Stevens Field Observations
Monday: High: 53, Low: 12, Peak wind: 7mph
Tuesday: High: 57, Low: 17, Peak wind: 9mph
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 44 | 68 / 1986 | 11 | -15 / 1909 |
Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.
Current satellite and radar…
There is nothing on radar in our area around noon on Wednesday.
Forecast highlights…
*** Avalanche danger in the high country is still “considerable”. ***
*** Partly cloudy, dry, and warm through the weekend. ***
*** Next week we’ll see a more active pattern, but it’s wimpy for us. ***
Forecast details…
Rest of Wednesday through most of Monday… A ridge along the southern west coast will keep the storm track to our north. Occasional patches of clouds will move through our area, but we’ll stay dry.
Monday the ridge will weaken and move to our east. We’ll see more clouds ahead of an approaching trough.
Monday night through next Wednesday… A weak trough with limited moisture will move through the region. We’ll have more clouds and there will be scattered showers. I don’t expect much precip.
Snow levels will be above 8,500ft so it will be mostly a rain event in the Pagosa area. For Wolf Creek 2-4” of snow is possible.
Temps…
Wednesday night lows will be in the high teens to the high 20s.
Thursday through Monday highs will be in the mid 50s to low 60s and lows will be in the high teens to the high 20s.
Tuesday highs will be in the low to high 50s and lows will be in the low to high 20s.
Next Wednesday highs will be in the high 40s to the mid 50s and lows will be in the low to high 20s.
Winds…
Wednesday and Thursday, each afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph near Pagosa and 30-35mph in the high country.
Friday and Saturday, each afternoon gusts will be 10-15mph near Pagosa and 20-25mph in the high country.
Sunday and Monday, each afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph near Pagosa and 30-35mph in the high country.
Tuesday and next Wednesday, each afternoon gusts will be 10-15mph near Pagosa and around 25mph in the high country.
4 Mar to 12 Mar… The big evil ridge will be a little farther off the west coast. The jet stream will push systems through our area from the northwest. These systems usually lack moisture, and the trajectory isn’t favorable for us. We’ll see periods of scattered showers, but I don’t see any big storms on the horizon.
Upper left, Euro ensemble shows 1.03”, upper right Euro AI ensemble shows 0.83”, bottom left GFS ensemble shows 1.43”, bottom right GFS AI ensemble shows 0.58”.
There is a wide variance in outcomes. I lean towards the lower totals.
The next post will be on Friday.
– Shawn
