Enjoy the Snow While It Lasts…

Tommy “supervised” Arleen measuring snow this morning. We have an average snow depth of 18”. There is a big variance due to drifting. – Pic taken 2/21/2026

Monday – 23 Feb 2026 – 5:30pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Friday: High: 26, Low: 2, Peak wind: 36mph at 10:10am

Peak wind on Tuesday, 17 Feb: 58mph

Peak wind on Wednesday, 18 Feb: 55mph

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
43	64 / 1958	9	-22 / 1955

Precipitation summary…

Wolf Creek daily snow totals…

21 Feb: 15”

20 Feb: 17”

19 Feb: 15”

18 Feb: 12”

17 Feb: trace

Total: 59”

Most of the Pagosa area got 12-20” of snow over the last 5 days. The snow winner was Terri and Rick in Lost Valley with 31.5”!

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour snow totals reported Saturday morning ranged from 0.8” to 6.7”.*

*CoCoRaHS multi day snow totals 17-21 Feb range from 8” to 31.5”. Most reports are in the 12-20” range.*

*CoCoRaHS snow totals month to date range from 9” to 33.5”. Most totals are in the 12-24” range. The February average snowfall is 18.9”.*

Snowpack in Upper San Juan basin went from 42% to 60%. That’s an impressive jump this late in the season. — *Snowpack in the Upper San Juan basin went from 42% to 60%. That’s an impressive jump this late in the season.*

The snowpack table for today shows that the Upper San Juan snotel is at 59% and the Wolf Creek Summit snotel is at 63%. Both are nearly 9” of liquid equivalent behind. That means they need 90” of 10:1 ratio snow to get to average. It would take two more big storm cycles like the one we just had to get to average. — *The snowpack table for today shows that the Upper San Juan snotel is at 59% and the Wolf Creek Summit snotel is at 63%.*
*Both are roughly 9” of liquid equivalent behind. That means they need 90” of 10:1 ratio snow to get to average. It would take two more big storm cycles like the one we just had to get to average.*

Current satellite and radar…

Visual satellite late Saturday morning – Skies are clear over nearly all of the Four Corners region. This storm cycle covered of region in snow! — *Visual satellite late Saturday morning – Skies are clear over nearly all of the Four Corners region. This storm cycle covered much of the region in snow!*

There is nothing on radar late Saturday morning in our area.

Forecast highlights…

*** AVALANCHE ADVISORY for the mountains through the weekend. Large and deadly avalanches will be easy to trigger. ***

*** Slight chance for spotty mountain snowshowers Wednesday and Thursday. Otherwise, we’ll see lots of blue sky, a gradual warming trend, and will be dry through the week. ***

Forecast details…

Saturday through next Saturday… A ridge will build over the region. We should see lots of sun and a warming trend.

Wednesday and Thursday a weak trough will move through northern Colorado and could kick up spotty snowshowers along The Divide. A few lucky spots in our mountains could get an inch of snow.

Temps…

Saturday highs will be in the mid 30s to low 40s and lows will be near zero to the mid teens.

Sunday highs will be in the low to high 40s and lows will be near 10 to the high teens.

Monday through next Saturday highs will be in the high 40s to the mid 50s. and lows will be in the mid teens to the mid 20s.

Winds…

Saturday through Tuesday each afternoon, gusts will be around 10mph in the Pagosa area and 25-30mph in the high country.

Wednesday through next Saturday, each afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph near Pagosa and 35-40mph in the high country.

NBM snow to 11pm Friday shows up to a half inch of snow along The Divide in our mountains. The northern Colorado mountains will be favored. — *NBM snow to 11pm Thursday shows up to a half inch of snow along The Divide in our mountains.*
*The northern Colorado mountains will be favored.*

1 Mar to 9 Mar… Our nemesis, the big evil ridge, will set up over the west coast. Weak systems will try to sneak through from the northwest (not favorable for us) towards the end of this period. I don’t see anything “fun” for us on the horizon.

Euro AI ensemble 24-hour precip amounts - This is one of my favorite products for a quick at look at precip for the next 15 days. It’s read left to right and times are in Zulu. The top charts shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart shows the control, mean, and variance of those 50 versions. It shows that we’re dry through Tuesday, and then there’s a slight chance for a little precip Wednesday and Thursday. Then we’re dry again through 2 Mar. Finally, 3-7 Mar could more active, but this indicates a weak pattern with poorly organized storms. — Euro AI ensemble 24-hour precip amounts – This is one of my favorite products for a quick look at precip for the next 15 days. It’s read left to right and times are in Zulu. The top charts shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart shows the control, mean, and variance of those 50 versions.

It expects us to be dry through Tuesday, and then there’s a slight chance for a little precip Wednesday and Thursday. Then we’re dry again through 2 Mar. Finally, 3-7 Mar could more active, but this indicates a weak pattern with poorly organized storms.

The next post will be on Monday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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