Empty slopes, fun groomed runs, and fantastic weather up at Wolf Creek! – Pic taken 2/3/2026
Wednesday – 4 Feb 2026 – 2:30pm
The past…
Stevens Field Observations
Monday: High: 51, Low: 18, Peak wind: 8mph
Tuesday: High: 51, Low: 16, Peak wind: 20mph
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 40 | 55 / 2025 | 3 | -37 / 1951 |
Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.
Current satellite and radar…
There is nothing on radar in our area Wednesday afternoon.
Forecast highlights…
*** Lots of sun and temps 10-15 degrees above average through Monday. ***
*** Tuesday afternoon into next Thursday morning rain and snow in the valley and snow in the mountains. ***
*** The pattern will remain unsettled with another system possible 16-19 Feb. ***
Forecast details…
Wednesday night through Friday morning… The pesky ridge will be the primary influence on our weather for this period. Patches of mid and high clouds will occasionally move through region, but we’ll stay dry.
Friday afternoon through Monday… The ridge will shift to our east and more clouds will move into the area from the southwest, but we’ll stay dry
Tuesday through next Thursday… The jet stream, storm energy, and moisture are trying to line up for a storm.
Timing… Scattered snowshowers will start over the mountains late Tuesday afternoon and increase over the area Tuesday night. The best chance for precip is Wednesday morning into Thursday morning, and then showers will gradually taper off Thursday afternoon.
Snow levels… Will bounce around between 7,600ft during the day and 7,000ft at night. Temps during the day will be around 40 so snow will struggle to accumulate.
Snow amounts…
Wolf Creek area: 8-12”
Pagosa area above 7,600ft: 2-4”
Pagosa area below 7,600ft: 1-2”
*** There is still a lot of uncertainty with this system. I will adjust the details as the data gets better. ***
Temps…
Wednesday night lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s.
Thursday through Monday highs will be in the low to high 50s and lows will be near 20 to near 30.
Tuesday highs will be in the high 40s to mid-50s and lows will be in the low to high 20s.
Next Wednesday highs will be near 40 to the mid-40s and lows will be in the mid-20s to low 30s.
Winds…
Thursday through Friday, each afternoon peak winds will be around 10mph in the Pagosa area and around 20mph in the high country.
Saturday afternoon gusts will be around 15mph near Pagosa and 25mph in the high country.
Sunday afternoon peak winds will be around 10mph in the Pagosa area and around 20mph in the high country.
Monday, Tuesday, and next Wednesday, each afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph in the Pagosa area and 30-40mph in the high country.
11 Feb to 19 Feb… The models continue to indicate an active weather pattern. Another system is trying to take shape 16-19 Feb. And it will be colder so it should be all snow for Pagosa Springs.
The next post will be on Friday.
– Shawn
