Active weather pattern will start around 10 Feb…

The big rodent in Pennsylvania expects 6 more weeks of winter. We’ll take any winter we can get! – Meme created by Michelle M.

Monday – 2 Feb 2026 – 3:45pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Saturday: High: 49, Low: 15, Peak wind: 10mph

Sunday: High: 55, Low: 14, Peak wind: 10mph

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
40	55 / 2025	3	-37 / 1951

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Current satellite and radar…

Water vapor satellite Monday afternoon – Purple arrows indicate upper-level flow. The weak ridge moving through northern CO is bringing us a few more clouds today, but there is no precip. The pesky ridge, jagged blue line, will keep us dry to 10 or 11 Feb. — Water vapor satellite Monday afternoon – Purple arrows indicate upper-level flow. The weak trough moving through northern CO is bringing us a few more clouds today, but there is no precip. The pesky ridge, jagged blue line, will keep us dry to 10 or 11 Feb.

There is nothing on radar in our area Monday afternoon.

Forecast highlights…

*** Lots of sun and temps around 10 degrees above average. ***

*** Dry until 10 or 11 Feb and then the weather pattern will get more active. ***

Forecast details…

Monday night through Friday morning… The pesky ridge will be the primary influence on our weather for most of this period. Patches of mid and high clouds will occasionally move through region, but we’ll stay dry.

Friday afternoon through Sunday… The ridge will shift to our east and more clouds will move into the area from the southwest. There’s a slight chance for a few spotty snowshowers over the mountains, but I think we’ll stay dry.

Monday… A transient ridge will move through with a few patches of mid and high clouds moving through. We’ll stay dry.

Temps…

Monday night lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s.

Tuesday and Wednesday highs will be in the high 40s to mid-50s and lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s.

Thursday and Friday highs will be in the low to high 50s and lows will be near 20 to near 30.

Saturday, Sunday, and next Monday highs will be in the high 40s to mid-50s and lows will be in the high teens to mid-20s.

Winds…

Tuesday through next Monday, each afternoon peak winds will be around 10mph in the Pagosa area and around 20mph in the high country.

*Euro snow to next Monday at 11pm – Our San Juan Mountains could get a dusting Saturday afternoon and Sunday afternoon, but I think we’ll stay dry.*

9 Feb to 17 Feb… The models continue to indicate a more active weather pattern starting 10 or 11 Feb. Precip amounts are gradually trending up – yay!

Ensemble precip totals for the next 15 days – In the upper left, Euro ensemble shows 0.94”. In the upper right, Euro AI ensemble shows 1.19”. In the bottom left, GFS ensemble shows 1.53”. In the bottom right, GFS AI ensemble shows 1.07”. Precip amounts are slowly trending up. — Ensemble precip totals for the next 15 days – In the upper left, Euro ensemble shows 0.94”. In the upper right, Euro AI ensemble shows 1.19”. In the bottom left, GFS ensemble shows 1.53”. In the bottom right, GFS AI ensemble shows 1.07”.
*Precip amounts are slowly trending up.*

*Euro ensemble 15-day snowfall for Wolf Creek shows 15”. It’s dry until around 10 Feb, and then the pattern will get more active.*

The next post will be on Wednesday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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