Pagosa Weather JANUARY SUMMARY & February Outlook

Snowpack is well below average for the whole Four Corners region

Snowpack is well below average for the whole Four Corners region

Sunday – 1 Feb 2026 – 5:30pm

January summary…

The average high for January is 37 and the average low is 2. The record high of 59 occurred on 1 Jan 1981. The record low of -42 occurred on 13 Jan 1963. Precip in Jan averages 2.08″ and the average snowfall is 26.4″. Wolf Creek Pass averages 3.67″ of precip and 76.1″ of snow.

At Stevens Field the highest temp was 53 on 14 Jan and the lowest temp was -4 on 29 Jan. There were two days with winds at or over 30mph.

How did we do?

January mean temperature anomalies across much of Archuleta County were 3-7 degrees above average.
January mean temperature anomalies across much of Archuleta County were 3-7 degrees above average.
January mean precip anomalies – Much of Archuleta County was around 30-50% of average while the higher elevations were around 30% of average.
January mean precip anomalies – Much of Archuleta County was around 30-50% of average while the higher elevations were around 30% of average.
CoCoRaHS precip totals ranged from 0.40″ to 1.64″. All locations were below the average of 2.08″.
CoCoRaHS precip totals ranged from 0.40″ to 1.64″. All locations were below the average of 2.08″.
CoCoRaHS snow totals ranged from 4.3″ to 12.3″. All locations had less than the average of 26.4″.
CoCoRaHS snow totals ranged from 4.3″ to 12.3″. All locations had less than the average of 26.4″.
1 Feb 2026 am Pagosa area precip for 2026 1
Total precip for 2026 is 0.69″ – 33% of the average of 2.08″.
Pagosa area snowfall is at 27% of the average of 60.8″ for this point of the season.
Pagosa area snowfall is at 27% of the average of 60.8″ for this point of the season.
Wolf Creek Ski Area has received 40% of its average snowfall so far
Wolf Creek Ski Area has received 40% of its average snowfall so far

Snowpack and Drought…

Snowpack is below average for much of the western US. The Upper San Juan snotel is at 45% of the seasonal median and the Wolf Creek Summit snotel is at 47%
Snowpack is below average for much of the western US.
The Upper San Juan snotel is at 45% of the seasonal median and the Wolf Creek Summit snotel is at 47%
In Archuleta County the northern part has “moderate drought” conditions while the southern part is still considered "abnormally dry". The US drought map on the bottom shows that much of the US is experiencing drought conditions.
In Archuleta County the northern part has “moderate drought” conditions while the southern part is still considered “abnormally dry”.
The US drought map on the bottom shows that much of the US is experiencing drought conditions.

February outlook…

The average high for February is 42 and the average low is 9. The record high of 60 occurred on 27 Feb 1988. The record low of -39 occurred on 1 Feb 1916. Precip in Feb averages 2.02″ and the average snowfall is 18.9″. Wolf Creek Pass averages 4.30″ of precip and 68.7″ of snow.

The CPC temp outlook for Feb on the left shows a 33-40% chance for above average temps. The precip outlook on the right shows a 33-40% chance for below average precip.
The CPC temp outlook for Feb on the left shows a 33-40% chance for above average temps.
The precip outlook on the right shows a 33-40% chance for below average precip.
Euro ensemble precip on the top expects 1.86″ for Feb and the GFS ensemble precip on the bottom expects 2.99″. The Euro expects a little less than the average of 2.02″ while the GFS expects more than the average. Last month both models over-forecast precip, but the Euro did a little better than the GFS.
Euro ensemble precip on the top expects 1.86″ for Feb and the GFS ensemble precip on the bottom expects 2.99″. The Euro expects a little less than the average of 2.02″ while the GFS expects more than the average.
Last month both models over-forecast precip, but the Euro did a little better than the GFS.

And what do we expect?

Arleen is the expert, and this is what she says…

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This will be the tale of two months. The first 10 days of the month, the ridge will be in place. We will have above normal temperatures without any precipitation. The last 18 days of the month will be active with only a few dry days.

A series of areas of low pressure storms will batter the ridge during the first 10 days and finally break it down changing the entire longwave pattern. We will be set up for areas of low pressure to approach from the southwest – our ideal pattern for snow.

Sadly, it will be too late & I don’t see massive storms. The MJO is a non-player till March. The Arctic oscillation is going positive.

I expect just below average precip for the month. Temps will be much cooler the last 18 days of the month giving us average temps for the month.

A HUGE thanks for your precip reports and pictures! Reports help verify our forecasts and make us better forecasters.

Another HUGE thanks to our donors and sponsors! You help cover the cost of this web page and our weather subscriptions, necessary to provide you accurate weather reports!

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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