Mostly sunny and dry into next Tuesday and possibly to 11 Feb…

A HUGE thanks to Mark G. for taking us on a fantastic flight Tuesday! In this picture, we are approaching Wolf Creek from the south. – Pic taken 1/27/2026

Thursday – 29 Jan 2026 – 1:30pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Tuesday: High: 39, Low: 4, Peak wind: 12mph

Wednesday: High: 42, Low: 8, Peak wind: 10mph

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
39	54 / 1986	3	-32 / 1909

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Current satellite and radar…

*Water vapor satellite Thursday around noon – Purple arrows indicate upper-level flow. The pesky ridge, jagged blue line, will keep us dry at least into Tuesday and possibly to 10 or 11 Feb.*

There is nothing on radar in our area Thursday afternoon.

Forecast highlights…

*** Lots of sun and a gradual warming trend. ***

*** Maybe a little mountain snow late Tuesday and Wednesday. ***

*** A more active weather pattern will start around 11 Feb. ***

Forecast details…

Thursday night through Tuesday morning… The pesky ridge will be the primary influence on our weather for most of this period. Patches of mid and high clouds will occasionally move through region, but we’ll stay dry.

Late Tuesday and Wednesday… Another disorganized system with limited moisture could drop a little snow on our mountains. There’s a small chance for 1-2” of snow at Wolf Creek.

Thursday and next Friday… A strong high will build over the Great Basin and prevent weather systems from impacting the western US.

Temps…

Thursday night lows will be in the mid-single digits to the mid-teens.

Friday highs will be in the low to high 40s and lows will be in the high single digits to high teens.

Saturday highs will be in the mid-40s to low 50s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s.

Sunday and Monday highs will be in the high 40s to mid-50s and lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s.

Tuesday and Wednesday highs will be in the mid-40s to low 50s and lows will be in the mid-teens to low 20s.

Next Thursday highs will be in the high 40s to mid-50s and lows will be in the mid-teens to low 20s.

Winds…

Friday through next Thursday, each afternoon peak winds will be around 10mph in the Pagosa area and around 20mph in the high country.

NBM snow to next Friday at 11pm – No snow is expected for Pagosa Springs and there’s small chance that Wolf Creek will get 1-2”. The snow in our area would fall late Tuesday into Wednesday afternoon.

5 Feb to 13 Feb… The models hint at a more active weather pattern starting around 11 Feb. Precip amounts are trending up – yay!

This is Euro ensemble 500mb anomalies on 11 Feb at 11am. It indicates where the pattern is expected to be active, blues and greens, and inactive, yellow, orange, and red. For much of the winter, we’ve been under the inactive zones. It’s very encouraging that we might finally see a pattern shift! Usual disclaimer: This is almost 2 weeks away so it can’t be trusted. — **This is Euro ensemble 500mb anomalies on 11 Feb at 11am**. It indicates where the pattern is expected to be active, blues and greens, and inactive, yellow, orange, and red. For much of the winter, we’ve been under the inactive zones. It’s very encouraging that we might finally see a pattern shift!
*Usual disclaimer: This is almost 2 weeks away so it can’t be trusted.*

Ensemble precip totals for the next 15 days – In the upper left, Euro ensemble shows 0.66”. In the upper right, Euro AI ensemble shows 0.62”. In the bottom left, GFS ensemble shows 0.63”. In the bottom right, GFS AI ensemble shows 0.52”. The models consistently show precip amounts gradually increasing. That’s a good trend! — Ensemble precip totals for the next 15 days – In the upper left, Euro ensemble shows 0.66”. In the upper right, Euro AI ensemble shows 0.62”. In the bottom left, GFS ensemble shows 0.63”. In the bottom right, GFS AI ensemble shows 0.52”.
**The models consistently show precip amounts gradually increasing. That’s a good trend!**

Euro ensemble 15-day snowfall for Wolf Creek shows 9”. Except for a slight chance for a few snowflakes next Tuesday night and Wednesday, it’s dry until around 10 Feb, and then the pattern will try to get more active.

The next post will be on Saturday.

– Shawn

Pagosa Weather Blizzard Level Sponsor

Pagosa Weather Snowman Level Sponsors

Pagosa Weather Snowball Level Sponsors

Pagosa Weather Storm Sponsor

Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Support Pagosa Weather

Contact Us

Pagosa Weather Disclaimer and Release of Liability

This website makes no guarantees about nor bears any responsibility or liability concerning the accuracy or timeliness of the weather information published on this website. All weather information published on this website is for educational and weather enthusiast purposes only. We do not issue Storm Watches, Warnings or Advisories as that ability falls with the National Weather Service, who is the only institution allowed to issue such warnings by law. We are not in any way linked nor affiliated with the National Weather Service, although we do share information and relay weather watches/ warnings, etc. Use of the information on page is at your own risk/discretion, and we are not responsible for any personal/property damages, injury or death associated with weather forecasts, reports or other information as well as communication exchanged in private messages and/or person.

Terms of Use Privacy Policy

Website Design by : Brandon